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Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (net of slippage AND Polymarket's own taker fee — fees_pp_applied itemises the fee component; see fees.ts for the published per-category schedule), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage and Polymarket's own taker fee.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3), for bid/ask + thin depth cost that a last-trade price does not show. Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing, ON TOP OF Polymarket's own taker fee — which is NOT zero (rate 0.04-0.07 depending on category, read off each market's own published fee schedule; see fees_pp_applied on every row and fees.ts for the full schedule). Bump slippage for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model — the fee still applies regardless.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. Changed3 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / examples
      Added value: +[
+  {
+    "limit": 5,
+    "window": "1wk"
+  }
+]
    • changedInput schema / properties / min_edge_pp / description
      Previous value: -"Minimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage."New value: +"Minimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage and Polymarket's own taker fee."
    • changedInput schema / properties / slippage_pp / description
      Previous value: -"Assumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model."New value: +"Assumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3), for bid/ask + thin depth cost that a last-trade price does not show. Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing, ON TOP OF Polymarket's own taker fee — which is NOT zero (rate 0.04-0.07 depending on category, read off each market's own published fee schedule; see fees_pp_applied on every row and fees.ts for the full schedule). Bump slippage for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model — the fee still applies regardless."
  2. Changed2 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / properties / max_spread_pp
      Added value: +{
+  "description": "Tradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.",
+  "type": "number"
+}
    • addedInput schema / properties / min_liquidity
      Added value: +{
+  "description": "Tradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.",
+  "type": "number"
+}
  3. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedInput schema / properties / min_partition_leg_kelly
      Added value: +{
+  "description": "Minimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.",
+  "type": "number"
+}
  4. Changed4 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / properties / category_filter
      Added value: +{
+  "description": "Comma-separated list to restrict the output: \"model_driven\" (crypto_price + news_momentum), \"structural_arbitrage\" (partition_overround), \"concentrated_longshot\". Combine like \"model_driven,structural_arbitrage\". Default: all.",
+  "type": "string"
+}
    • changedInput schema / properties / min_edge_pp / description
      Previous value: -"Minimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5)."New value: +"Minimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage."
    • addedInput schema / properties / min_kelly
      Added value: +{
+  "description": "Minimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.",
+  "type": "number"
+}
    • addedInput schema / properties / slippage_pp
      Added value: +{
+  "description": "Assumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.",
+  "type": "number"
+}
  5. Added

TDQS

A4.5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, and destructiveHint. The description adds a wealth of behavioral context beyond that: it explains caching at the KV level (1h, keyed on all knobs), the response segmentation into by_segment with diagnostics, the fee handling (net of slippage and taker fee, with fees_pp_applied itemized), and the 'rare-by-design' concentration longshot gate. It even explains the logic behind excluding fed bets. This is far more than annotations provide.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness2/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is a single, extremely dense paragraph with heavy use of all-caps, abbreviations, and parentheticals (e.g., FIVE MODEL FAMILIES, edge_pp_net, fees.ts). While every sentence carries information, the structure is not appropriately sized for a tool description; it buries key facts like caching and diagnostics in a wall of text. It could be formatted with headings and bullet points for easier scanning. Although the content is valuable, it violates conciseness by requiring significant effort to parse.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (9 parameters, no output schema, multiple model families) and that annotations only cover safety, the description is remarkably complete. It explains the three response segments, diagnostics, fed_candidates, the net-of-fee edge calculation, the role of each knob, and the caching behavior. An agent can understand what the tool returns and how to invoke it correctly without needing additional context.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Though schema_description_coverage is 100%, the description adds significant semantic depth. For example, it explains that min_partition_leg_kelly applies to per-leg Kelly within top_legs and that partition arbs return kelly_fraction_half=0 at parent level by design—details not in the schema. It also clarified the interaction between slippage_pp and the Polymarket taker fee, and the purpose of tradeable-edge knobs. This goes well beyond the schema's own descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb and resource: 'Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price.' It clearly distinguishes itself from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage and polymarket_edge_tracker by focusing on discovery from Pipeworx data vs. market pricing. It also states its intended use case ('what should I bet on today'), making it unambiguous.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides clear context for when to use the tool—for betting opportunity discovery—and even explains why Fed bets are excluded from ranking due to unreliable data. However, it does not explicitly name alternatives or say 'use this instead of X when...', so it lacks explicit exclusions. The 'Built for' phrasing implies usage but does not cover when not to use it.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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