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Ct Phase Transition Rates

ct_phase_transition_rates
Read-onlyIdempotent

Measure how often drugs for a disease actually advance from one clinical phase to the next — the registry-derived analog of a probability-of-technical-success (PTRS) benchmark. Groups industry-sponsored interventional trials for the condition by normalized intervention (drug) name, then reports observed Phase 1→Phase 2 and Phase 2→Phase 3 transition rates as numerator/denominator with an explicit censoring rule, alongside the published BIO/Informa/QLS 2011-2020 benchmark for the matching therapeutic area. Answers "what fraction of Phase 2 assets in NSCLC reach Phase 3", "how does attrition in Alzheimer compare to lung cancer", "what is the probability of success for this indication". Returns the top interventions with their per-phase trial path so the rate is auditable. Counts trial EXISTENCE in the registry, not efficacy readouts or approvals, so it is an upper bound on technical success.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
to_yearNoAnalysis end year; the censoring window is measured back from here. Defaults to the current year.
conditionYesDisease or condition, e.g. "non-small cell lung cancer", "Alzheimer disease", "type 2 diabetes".
from_yearNoOptional earliest year for the EARLIER-phase completion date (e.g. 2010). Omit for no floor.
max_pagesNoUpstream pages of 1000 studies to pull (1-5, default 5). The response reports truncated: true when the cap cut off the match set.
censor_yearsNoYears an earlier-phase trial must have been completed before to_year to enter the denominator (1-15, default 3). Raising it demands more follow-up time, shrinking the denominator; lowering it admits assets that have not yet had time to advance and depresses the rate.
sponsor_classNoWhich sponsors to count. "industry" (default) restricts to company-led trials, matching how commercial PTRS benchmarks are built; "all" adds academic, NIH and other sponsors, which raises the count and lowers the rate.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. Added

TDQS

A4.4/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description discloses non-obvious behaviors beyond the annotations: it counts trial existence as an upper bound, groups by normalized intervention name, includes an explicit censoring rule, and reports numerator/denominator for auditability. This gives the agent a clear mental model of how results are derived and how to interpret them.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but every sentence carries substantive information: core purpose, method, example use cases, output shape, and an important caveat. The single dense paragraph is somewhat less scannable than it could be, but there is no fluff or redundant repetition.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description compensates well by specifying that output includes transition rates as numerator/denominator, a benchmark comparison, and top interventions with per-phase trial paths for auditability. Combined with a fully documented schema and strong annotations, an agent has all essential information to invoke and interpret the tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, with each parameter already documented including defaults, ranges, and behavioral effects (e.g., censor_years shrinking the denominator). The description reinforces this context but does not add substantial new parameter semantics beyond what the schema provides, so the baseline 3 is appropriate.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description names a specific analytic verb ('Measure') and resources ('clinical phase transition rates', 'registry-derived analog'), then gives concrete example questions that make its scope unmistakable. It also contrasts this tool with efficacy or approval metrics, differentiating it from sibling tools like ct_results_summary or ct_get_study.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

It provides explicit example questions ('what fraction of Phase 2 assets in NSCLC reach Phase 3', etc.) and states when the tool is appropriate for PTRS/attrition analysis. It also clarifies that it counts trial existence rather than success, which guides interpretationresident. However, it never names alternative sibling tools or gives 'use this instead' disambiguation, so it stops short of fully explicit routing guidance.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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