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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • removedInput schema / anyOf
      Removed value: -[
      -  {
      -    "required": [
      -      "event"
      -    ]
      -  },
      -  {
      -    "required": [
      -      "topic"
      -    ]
      -  }
      -]
  2. Changed3 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / anyOf
      Added value: +[
      +  {
      +    "required": [
      +      "event"
      +    ]
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "required": [
      +      "topic"
      +    ]
      +  }
      +]
    • changedInput schema / properties / event / description
      Previous value: -"Single-event mode: Polymarket event slug (e.g. \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\") or full URL."New value: +"Single-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like \"fed-decision-may-2026\" or \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted."
    • changedInput schema / properties / topic / description
      Previous value: -"Cross-event mode: a topic or seed question. Tool searches Polymarket for related markets across separate events and checks monotonicity across them. E.g. \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\"."New value: +"Cross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like \"Fed rate decision\" or \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them."
  3. Added

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description goes far beyond the read-only/idempotent annotations by disclosing internal logic: Jaccard similarity threshold, partition placeholder fraction limit, >3pp deviation for BUY/SELL signals, and the fill check behavior with 'realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0' meaning 'do not trade it'. These are valuable, non-obvious behavioral details.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured using section-like breaks (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK). It front-loads the core purpose and then methodically covers modes, response format, and caveats. Every sentence carries functional information; no filler text.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (multiple modes, thresholds, edge cases) and the absence of an output schema, the description compensates by fully specifying the response structure: 'opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context)' and 'partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}'. It also covers failure/edge cases like placeholder slugs and thin books, making it highly complete.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema descriptions already provide solid coverage of both parameters with examples. The description adds extra clarity by explaining how each parameter drives the analysis: event slugs 'walk child markets' and compute partition_check, while topic seeds are expanded to 'search related events... flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union.' This goes beyond the schema's literal field definitions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Description opens with a specific verb and resource: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' This clearly identifies the tool's unique approach and distinguishes it from siblings like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk. The two modes (event, topic) are explicitly explained, reinforcing purpose clarity.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit usage guidance is provided: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan...', 'event (recommended for a specific market)', and 'topic (for cross-event scanning)'. It also names an alternative tool for custom sizing: 'For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.' This makes when-to-use and when-not-to-use very clear.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.5/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded are near-identical query routers, and the five polymarket_* tools all hunt mispricings in subtly different ways. The memory trio (remember/recall/forget) and subscription trio (subscribe/unsubscribe/recent_alerts) are distinct, but the many data-query tools create frequent ambiguity for an agent deciding which one to call.

Naming Consistency2/5

Naming is a mix of verb_noun (list_categories, resolve_entity, validate_claim), bare nouns (entity_profile, random_joke, deep_research), single verbs (forget, recall), and brand-prefixed nouns (pipeworx_feedback, pipeworx_trending). There's no consistent pattern across the set, so an agent cannot predict a tool's name from its function.

Tool Count1/5

35 tools for a server named 'chucknorris' is an extreme mismatch; only 4 tools actually relate to Chuck Norris jokes. The rest form a sprawling collection of data-research, prediction-market, subscription, and memory utilities that have nothing to do with the stated server identity and overwhelm any agent expecting a simple joke API.

Completeness2/5

The Chuck Norris joke subset is complete (random, by-category, search, categories), but the overall server attempts many unrelated domains—structured data queries, prediction-market arb, entity profiles, subscriptions, memory—none of which are clearly scoped or fully coherent. The result is a grab-bag with no single domain that feels finished, and the incongruous inclusion of joke tools adds confusion rather than coverage.