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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the readOnly/idempotent annotations, the description discloses nuanced behaviors: it walks child markets, computes partition sums, filters placeholder slugs, enforces Jaccard similarity, and runs a live CLOB fill-check with a clear 'do not trade' condition. This is rich, non-obvious context with no contradiction to annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured with labeled sections and front-loaded purpose. Every sentence covers a distinct rule, mode, or output field, so the length is justified for the tool's multi-mode complexity. No filler or redundancy.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description enumerates the return structure (`opportunities[]`, `partition_check`, `realizable_edge_pp`, `thin_legs[]`) and documents edge cases and fallbacks. It also references a related tool for sizing, making the tool effectively self-contained for an agent.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

While the schema already covers both parameters, the description adds significant meaning: the no-arg default behavior, event slug/URL examples, topic seed question examples, and the specific checks each mode performs. It turns simple string parameters into actionable mode selectors.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The opening sentence states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks, naming the resource and method explicitly. It further distinguishes modes (no-arg trending scan, event-specific, topic cross-event), making it clear how this differs from sibling tools.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives explicit when-to-use instructions: no args for a broad trending scan, `event` for a specific market, and `topic` for cross-event scanning. It also names an alternative tool for custom sizing (`polymarket_fill_risk`) and warns when not to trade a signal, satisfying the when/when-not requirement.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.4/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The server is named 'chess', yet none of the 34 tools relate to chess. An agent looking for chess functionality would find all tools irrelevant. While individual tool descriptions are clear, the server's name creates a fundamental disambiguation problem: the tool set does not match the server's apparent purpose.

Naming Consistency4/5

Tool names within the set follow a consistent snake_case pattern with descriptive verbs (e.g., ask_pipeworx, deep_research, resolve_entity). There are no mixed conventions. However, the server name 'chess' is completely inconsistent with the tool names, which all suggest data research rather than chess.

Tool Count1/5

For a server named 'chess', 34 tools is wildly excessive. Even for a data research server, the count is high, but the server's name implies a narrow chess domain, making the count inappropriate. The tools cover broad topics like SEC filings, Polymarket, and weather, none of which belong in a chess server.

Completeness1/5

The server claims to be about chess, but there are zero chess-related tools. The tool set is completely incomplete for its stated purpose. As a data research server, completeness might be high, but that is irrelevant given the server name.