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Chaos Index

Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description goes well beyond the annotations, disclosing that spreads are gross not net, that Kalshi's fee schedule is not modeled, that unknown legs are never paired, that `temporal_alignment` null means 'could not be computed' rather than aligned, and that `pairing_unverified` is set in both modes. These are exactly the behavioral caveats an agent needs. The `readOnlyHint: true` and `idempotentHint: true` annotations are consistent with the description; no contradiction exists.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but densely packed with valuable caveats, safety fields, and code semantics. It uses clear labels like TWO MODES, RESPONSE, and SAFETY FIELDS, which aid scanning. It loses a point because the list of pre-mapped shortcuts is duplicated from the schema and the overall length is substantial, though most sentences do earn their place.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description carries the full burden of explaining the response shape, compatibility codes, fees, skipped-leg counters, temporal alignment semantics, and confidence caveats. It covers essentially everything an agent needs to call this tool correctly and interpret its results, including the important warning that non-empty compatibility warnings can coexist with matched pairs.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The input schema already documents all three parameters with 100% coverage, so the baseline is 3. The description adds meaningful semantics beyond the schema: it explains the two modes, that explicit parameters override the topic-mapped side, that both modes produce identical disclosures, and that the same token-overlap matcher applies regardless of mode. This is useful but not transformative given the schema already covers parameter names and examples.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The first sentence clearly identifies the tool's operation: computing the cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. It is specific about the two venues and the metric. However, it does not explicitly differentiate this tool from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage or polymarket_edges; the distinction is implied by the venue pair rather than stated.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives explicit mode-level guidance: `topic` shortcuts versus explicit `kalshi_event_ticker` + `polymarket_event_slug` pairings, and notes that both modes run the same matcher. It also warns that pre-mapped topics are not necessarily tradeable and often return compatibility warnings. It does not explicitly say when to prefer this tool over sibling alternatives, so the guidance is strong but not fully comparative.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The set contains multiple near-duplicate entry points: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta (explicitly identical right now), and ask_pipeworx_grounded overlap heavily, while deep_research, discover_tools, and suggest_questions all claim to be the 'call this first' tool. Also, ai_visibility_check vs scan_competitor_ai_presence and the five polymarket_* tools create boundaries an agent could easily mischoose.

Naming Consistency4/5

Most tools follow a clear snake_case verb_noun pattern (compare_entities, validate_claim, unsubscribe, search_within). Minor deviations exist — chaos_index_calculate puts the verb last, entity_profile is noun-only, and the pipeworx_ prefix is applied inconsistently (pipeworx_trending vs ask_pipeworx) — but the overall style is predictable.

Tool Count2/5

32 tools is too many for a coherent single-purpose server; the set spans data routing, prediction markets, subscriptions, memory, AI visibility, npm scanning, and llms.txt generation. It reads as a bundled suite of unrelated utilities rather than a focused tool surface.

Completeness3/5

Subdomains are individually fairly complete: subscription CRUD, memory CRUD, and the prediction-market workflow (research, edges, arbitrage, fill risk, tracking) are all covered. However, the overall domain is incoherent, and gaps exist such as no update-subscription operation and no way to modify an existing memory beyond overwriting via remember.