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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the annotations (readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint), the description adds rich behavioral details: semantic anchor with Jaccard similarity threshold, partition filter for placeholder slugs, fill check against live CLOB depth, and trade suggestion conditions. This fully covers what the tool does and its limitations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is front-loaded with the main purpose but becomes verbose, including technical details like '≥0.30 Jaccard similarity' and multiple signal types. While informative, it could be more concise by moving some details to the schema or output description.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the complexity (multiple modes, no output schema), the description is thorough. It outlines the response structure (opportunities[], partition_check), fill check logic, and mentions related tools (polymarket_fill_risk). Covers edge cases like skipped_low_similarity and placeholder filters.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, with both parameters already described. The tool description adds value by explaining accepted formats (e.g., full Polymarket URLs for event, seed questions for topic) and the mode selection logic, going beyond the schema alone.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It specifies the verb (find), resource (arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket), and method, distinguishing it from sibling tools like polymarket_fill_risk and polymarket_edges.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explains two modes (event and topic) with recommendations (e.g., 'event (recommended for a specific market)'). It provides context on when to use each and mentions polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing. However, it lacks explicit exclusions or when not to use this tool.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4/5.0
Disambiguation4/5

Most tools target a distinct action or resource, and the long routing descriptions make choices like ask_pipeworx vs ask_pipeworx_grounded vs deep_research clear. The main weak spots are ask_pipeworx_beta being currently identical to ask_pipeworx and the six overlapping Polymarket tools, but each has a discernible workflow.

Naming Consistency3/5

Naming has internally consistent subfamilies such as censtatd_*, ask_pipeworx*, and polymarket_*, but overall it mixes verb-first names (get_table, validate_claim, subscribe), noun-first names (entity_profile, bet_research, pipeworx_feedback), and bare imperatives (remember, forget, recall). The set is readable but does not follow one convention.

Tool Count2/5

35 tools exceeds the 25+ threshold and feels heavy, especially since many tools (generate_llms_txt, scan_dependency, pipeworx_feedback, pipeworx_trending) are unrelated to the HK Census core implied by the server name. The broad Pipeworx scope explains the width, but the surface is still large for an agent to navigate efficiently.

Completeness4/5

For a read-only research/data-access gateway, coverage is strong: generic lookup, grounded verification, deep research, entity profile/compare/change, entity resolution, memory, and subscription lifecycle are all represented. Minor gaps exist, such as no subscription update, no explicit bulk/export path, and fewer HK C&SD convenience wrappers, but agents can work around them.

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