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Glama

Cdec Ca

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare read-only, open-world, idempotent, and non-destructive. The description goes far beyond by detailing the three model families and their logic, the net-of-slippage edge, the Kelly caps, the 24h-move warning, the caching at KV level, and the diagnostic output (funnel counters, filter_skips) that reveals why segments might be empty. It also discloses the unreliability of the Fed signal, adding valuable behavioral context.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense but well-structured, front-loaded with the purpose and then organized into model families, knobs, response format, and caching. Every sentence carries substantive information, though the single block of text could be more scannable with clearer sections or lists. It is appropriately sized for the tool's complexity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description must explain return values, and it does so thoroughly: response top-level includes by_segment, fed_candidates/fed_note, and _diagnostics; each opportunity carries edge_pp_net, kelly_fraction, kelly_fraction_half, market liquidity/spread/volume, and a 24h-move warning. It also explains why segments can be empty via funnel counters and filter_skips. The description is complete for an agent to use the tool effectively.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3. The description adds meaning by explaining min_partition_leg_kelly in the context of basket trades, clarifying that min_edge_pp is net of slippage, and providing practical guidance on slippage_pp (zero fees, typical 20-50bp). This adds value beyond the schema's self-contained parameter descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's function: 'Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price.' It uses a specific verb-and-resource structure and explicitly mentions the intended use case ('what should I bet on today'), effectively distinguishing itself from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage and polymarket_edge_tracker.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explains when to use the tool: to discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets, and notes that Fed bets surface here but are excluded from ranking. It does not explicitly name alternatives or state 'when not to use,' but the intended context is clear and practical.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools are near-duplicates or have fuzzy boundaries: ask_pipeworx_beta explicitly matches ask_pipeworx exactly, the raw data tools (daily_data, hourly_data, event_data, latest, reservoirs) all read as generic 'get data' operations, and the five polymarket_* scanners overlap in opportunity-finding. The verbose descriptions help for many composite tools, but an agent can still easily select the wrong variant.

Naming Consistency4/5

The naming is predominantly consistent lowercase snake_case with strong prefixed families (ask_pipeworx*, polymarket_*, pipeworx_*, scan_*) and clear verb_noun actions. Minor deviations like noun-only latest/reservoirs, ask_pipeworx lacking a separator, and generate_llms_txt keep it from a 5.

Tool Count2/5

37 tools is well above the heavy threshold, and the count is inflated by redundant meta-tools, three router variants, six overlapping generic data fetchers, and six prediction-market tools. Many tools are purposeful, so it is not an extreme mismatch, but the surface would be much cleaner at roughly 20-25 tools.

Completeness4/5

The set covers the core data lifecycle well: discovery (discover_tools, suggest_questions), lookup (ask_pipeworx), grounding/validation (ask_pipeworx_grounded, validate_claim, search_within), entity workflows (resolve_entity, entity_profile, recent_changes, compare_entities), plus memory and subscription CRUD. Minor gaps like no explicit fetch-by-citation tool and a limited subscription type set prevent a 5.

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