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Cdec Ca

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the readOnly/openWorld/idempotent annotations, the description reveals deep behavioral details: the ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity anchor, placeholder slug filtering, the >3pp tolerance for partition deviations, and the fill-check pricing against live CLOB depth. It even warns that a non-positive realizable edge means the opportunity is not tradable.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is logically ordered: purpose, usage modes, algorithm details, edge-case filters, response format, and fill-check guidance. It is dense and every sentence contributes, but the heavy text block could benefit from bullet points or subheadings for readability. Still, no waste.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description thoroughly specifies return values for both modes, including exact field names like gap_pp, suggested_trade, and partition_check. It also covers edge cases and tool boundaries, making it a complete specification for an agent to use this tool correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although the schema already describes both parameters well (100% coverage), the description adds crucial context: what happens with no arguments, concrete examples of event slugs and topics, the algorithmic distinction between event and topic modes, and the response structure for each. This substantially exceeds the schema's baseline.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a clear verb+resource: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It distinguishes itself from siblings by focusing on arbitrage and explicitly referencing polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, making the tool's scope unmistakable.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Usage is explicitly specified: no args for trending_scan, `event` for a specific market, and `topic` for cross-event scanning. It also names an alternative tool (polymarket_fill_risk) and explains when not to trade based on the fill check, giving clear decision boundaries.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools are near-duplicates or have fuzzy boundaries: ask_pipeworx_beta explicitly matches ask_pipeworx exactly, the raw data tools (daily_data, hourly_data, event_data, latest, reservoirs) all read as generic 'get data' operations, and the five polymarket_* scanners overlap in opportunity-finding. The verbose descriptions help for many composite tools, but an agent can still easily select the wrong variant.

Naming Consistency4/5

The naming is predominantly consistent lowercase snake_case with strong prefixed families (ask_pipeworx*, polymarket_*, pipeworx_*, scan_*) and clear verb_noun actions. Minor deviations like noun-only latest/reservoirs, ask_pipeworx lacking a separator, and generate_llms_txt keep it from a 5.

Tool Count2/5

37 tools is well above the heavy threshold, and the count is inflated by redundant meta-tools, three router variants, six overlapping generic data fetchers, and six prediction-market tools. Many tools are purposeful, so it is not an extreme mismatch, but the surface would be much cleaner at roughly 20-25 tools.

Completeness4/5

The set covers the core data lifecycle well: discovery (discover_tools, suggest_questions), lookup (ask_pipeworx), grounding/validation (ask_pipeworx_grounded, validate_claim, search_within), entity workflows (resolve_entity, entity_profile, recent_changes, compare_entities), plus memory and subscription CRUD. Minor gaps like no explicit fetch-by-citation tool and a limited subscription type set prevent a 5.

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