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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, and non-destructive behavior. The description adds significant context: it explains the partition filter (drops placeholder slugs), the fill check (theoretical vs. realizable edge), and conditions for not trading (realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0). This goes well beyond annotation data, fully disclosing behavioral traits and limitations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is well-structured: it starts with the core action, then details each mode, followed by technical constraints (semantic anchor, partition filter, fill check). Every sentence provides essential information—no redundancy. Despite length, it is front-loaded and efficient, earning its length given the tool's complexity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Without an output schema, the description fully explains the response structure (opportunities[] with fields, partition_check fields, fill_check details). It covers all parameters, modes, and edge cases (e.g., skipped_low_similarity, placeholders_filtered). The description leaves no significant gaps, ensuring an agent understands inputs, outputs, and logic completely.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Both parameters (event and topic) have schema descriptions, and the description enriches them with examples, expected slugs, and behavioral implications. It explains that event mode walks child markets and performs date-axis/threshold-axis ordering and partition check, while topic mode searches across events. This adds substantial meaning beyond the schema, making the parameters' effects clear.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It distinguishes itself from sibling tools like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk by detailing its unique algorithmic approach and multiple modes (trending scan, event, topic). The verb-resource combination is specific and unambiguous.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance on when to use each mode: call with no args for trending scan, pass event for specific market partition check, or topic for cross-event scanning. It explains trade-offs (e.g., cross-event catches patterns single-event misses) and includes a fill check to avoid non-tradeable signals. It also references polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, offering clear when-to and when-not-to use.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4/5.0
Disambiguation4/5

Most tools have distinct purposes with clear descriptions, but the multiple ask_pipeworx variants and several Polymarket tools could cause initial confusion. An agent reading carefully can differentiate them, but the similarity in themes requires attention.

Naming Consistency3/5

Names use a mix of conventions: verb_noun (ask_pipeworx, compare_entities), noun_noun (entity_profile, dataset_columns), and single verbs (remember, forget). While some subgroups have internal consistency (e.g., polymarket_*), there is no overall predictable pattern.

Tool Count2/5

With 34 tools, the count exceeds the 'too many' threshold of 25. While the server is comprehensive, the large number of highly specific tools (especially for prediction markets) feels overwhelming and could confuse agents.

Completeness4/5

The tool set covers a wide range of capabilities: data querying, entity resolution, company analysis, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions, and validation. Minor gaps exist (e.g., no data writing tools), but for the read-heavy analytical purpose, it is nearly complete.

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