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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations indicate readOnly, openWorld, idempotent, non-destructive. The description adds detailed behavioral context: semantic anchor threshold, partition filter logic, fill check with specific thresholds (realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 indicates non-tradable). No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is detailed and front-loaded with core purpose and modes. However, it is verbose with technical jargon (monotonicity violations, Jaccard similarity) and internal headings (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK). Every sentence adds value, but a leaner version could improve clarity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite no output schema, the description fully documents the response structure (opportunities[], partition_check, fill check details) and covers edge cases (skipped_low_similarity, placeholder fraction). It also references a related tool for custom sizing, making it complete for its complexity.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, and the description adds significant value: explains event vs topic modes, provides example slugs and seed questions, and details what each parameter triggers (e.g., event walks child markets, topic searches related events).

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states it finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket using monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It specifies three modes: no-args for trending scan, event for a specific market, and topic for cross-event scanning, with clear distinctions.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly recommends when to use each mode (event for specific market, topic for cross-event scanning) and provides a fill-check caveat telling when not to trade. Also references a sibling tool (polymarket_fill_risk) for custom sizing, offering clear guidance on alternatives.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The ask_pipeworx family (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research) has significant boundary overlap, and ask_pipeworx_beta is explicitly identical to ask_pipeworx today. The six polymarket_* tools plus bet_research also cover heavily overlapping prediction-market territory, so an agent could easily route a query to the wrong one despite detailed descriptions.

Naming Consistency4/5

Most tools follow a consistent snake_case verb_noun pattern (ask_pipeworx, compare_entities, generate_llms_txt, list_subscriptions, validate_claim, scan_dependency). Minor deviations exist — entity_profile is noun-noun, brightdata_serp/brightdata_unlock use a vendor prefix, and remember/recall/forget are bare verbs — but the overall style is predictable and readable.

Tool Count2/5

At 33 tools this exceeds the 25+ threshold that signals an over-heavy surface. While the server covers multiple domains (data lookup, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions, AI visibility), many of those domains carry redundant variants that could be consolidated, making the count feel bloated rather than well-scoped.

Completeness4/5

The surface covers the core workflows well: querying (ask_pipeworx variants), deep research, entity resolution, entity profiles, comparisons, change feeds, claim verification, discovery/onboarding, subscriptions (list/subscribe/unsubscribe), memory (remember/recall/forget), and feedback. Minor gaps exist — there is no direct tool to fetch a returned pipeworx:// citation URI, and memory lacks an explicit update operation — but agents can work around these.

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