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Bpstat Pt

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description goes well beyond the annotations (readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, destructiveHint false) by disclosing the edge computation (net of slippage), caching behavior (1h KV-level), response structure (by_segment with diagnostics), and handling of empty segments. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is quite long but well-structured with clear sections for model families, tradeable-edge knobs, and response details. While verbose, the organization aids comprehension. Some redundancy could be trimmed, but overall it earns its length given the complexity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

All 9 optional parameters are described with defaults and usage guidance. The response structure is fully detailed including diagnostic info for empty segments. No output schema is provided, but the description compensates by listing all response fields (edge_pp_net, kelly_fraction, etc.). The tool's behavior is fully specified for an agent.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so baseline is 3. The description adds significant value by explaining the purpose and context of each parameter (e.g., min_liquidity to filter thin-book, slippage_pp with Polymarket fee context, min_partition_leg_kelly for partitions). Defaults and rationales are provided, enhancing agent understanding.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price.' It also includes the use case 'what should I bet on today' and distinguishes it from siblings by detailing unique features like model families and structural arbitrage.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides extensive guidance on when to use the tool, including scenarios for each of the three opportunity segments. It does not explicitly state when not to use it vs. alternatives, but the detailed descriptions imply appropriate contexts. Implicit differentiation from sibling tools is present.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tool clusters are nearly indistinguishable: ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are explicitly documented as currently identical, scan_competitor_ai_presence is a thin wrapper over ai_visibility_check, and the five polymarket_* tools (edges, edge_tracker, arbitrage, fill_risk, kalshi_spread) share heavily overlapping edge-detection/fill-analysis concerns. entity_profile and recent_changes also both fan out to the same SEC/news/patents sources, so an agent must read full descriptions to avoid misselection.

Naming Consistency3/5

The dominant pattern is imperative verb_first (list_datasets, get_dataset, resolve_entity, validate_claim, scan_dependency, subscribe), but there are notable deviations: noun-phrase names like entity_profile, recent_alerts, recent_changes, bet_research, and deep_research; the ask_pipeworx brand family sits awkwardly beside get_/search_ verbs; and the polymarket_* prefix family forms yet another convention. Names are readable and mostly self-explanatory, but no single consistent scheme is followed.

Tool Count2/5

At 35 tools, this exceeds the 'too many (25+)' threshold, and the bloat is compounded by the server's nominal identity: despite being named 'Bpstat Pt' (Banco de Portugal statistics), only about 5 tools (list_domains, list_datasets, get_dataset, get_series_metadata) actually serve that domain. The other 30 tools span unrelated subsystems — Polymarket betting, npm dependency scanning, AI visibility audits, generic memory, and subscriptions — suggesting several products bundled into one server.

Completeness3/5

For the broader data-gateway interpretation, the lifecycle is well covered: discovery (discover_tools, suggest_questions), query (ask_pipeworx), grounded verification (ask_pipeworx_grounded, validate_claim), deep research (deep_research), profiles/comparisons (entity_profile, compare_entities), monitoring (recent_changes, subscribe/recent_alerts), and memory (remember/recall/forget). However, for the nominal Bpstat statistical domain there is no keyword search over series or datasets — navigation requires knowing domain/dataset ids in advance — and the extreme scatter across unrelated domains leaves each subsystem only partially developed.

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