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Glama

Bpstat Pt

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • changedInput schema / examples
      Previous value: -[
-  {
-    "market_input": "will fed cut rates in june 2026"
-  },
-  {
-    "market_input": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
-  }
-]New value: +[
+  {
+    "market": "will-bitcoin-reach-100k-in-july-2026"
+  },
+  {
+    "market": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
+  }
+]
  2. First observed

TDQS

A4.4/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description goes far beyond annotations, detailing fan-out examples, response shapes, resolver contract, parent_event extractor, news field behavior, safety mechanisms, illiquidity handling, and resolution-rule risk. It adds extensive behavioral context that annotations alone do not provide, with no contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness2/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is very long and includes many examples, edge cases, and internal details. While informative, it lacks conciseness; the first two sentences capture the core purpose, but the remainder adds bulk. A more structured approach (e.g., grouped into sections) would improve readability, but currently it is overly verbose.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity, the high schema coverage, and lack of output schema, the description is exceptionally complete. It covers input types, internal behavior, response structure, edge cases, and safety considerations, leaving little ambiguity for an AI agent.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Input schema coverage is 100% with detailed descriptions for all three parameters. The description does not add significant new meaning; it reiterates the market parameter formats and provides examples, but the schema already fully explains the parameters. Thus baseline score of 3 is appropriate.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description states clearly that the tool researches a Polymarket bet by pulling Pipeworx data in one call. It specifies the action ('Research'), the resource ('Polymarket bet'), and the method ('pulling relevant Pipeworx data'). This distinguishes it from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage or polymarket_edges, which focus on different aspects.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly lists use cases: 'Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z"'. It provides detailed examples of when it applies and also describes blocking conditions like low-confidence matches and closed markets, effectively guiding when to trust the output.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tool clusters are nearly indistinguishable: ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are explicitly documented as currently identical, scan_competitor_ai_presence is a thin wrapper over ai_visibility_check, and the five polymarket_* tools (edges, edge_tracker, arbitrage, fill_risk, kalshi_spread) share heavily overlapping edge-detection/fill-analysis concerns. entity_profile and recent_changes also both fan out to the same SEC/news/patents sources, so an agent must read full descriptions to avoid misselection.

Naming Consistency3/5

The dominant pattern is imperative verb_first (list_datasets, get_dataset, resolve_entity, validate_claim, scan_dependency, subscribe), but there are notable deviations: noun-phrase names like entity_profile, recent_alerts, recent_changes, bet_research, and deep_research; the ask_pipeworx brand family sits awkwardly beside get_/search_ verbs; and the polymarket_* prefix family forms yet another convention. Names are readable and mostly self-explanatory, but no single consistent scheme is followed.

Tool Count2/5

At 35 tools, this exceeds the 'too many (25+)' threshold, and the bloat is compounded by the server's nominal identity: despite being named 'Bpstat Pt' (Banco de Portugal statistics), only about 5 tools (list_domains, list_datasets, get_dataset, get_series_metadata) actually serve that domain. The other 30 tools span unrelated subsystems — Polymarket betting, npm dependency scanning, AI visibility audits, generic memory, and subscriptions — suggesting several products bundled into one server.

Completeness3/5

For the broader data-gateway interpretation, the lifecycle is well covered: discovery (discover_tools, suggest_questions), query (ask_pipeworx), grounded verification (ask_pipeworx_grounded, validate_claim), deep research (deep_research), profiles/comparisons (entity_profile, compare_entities), monitoring (recent_changes, subscribe/recent_alerts), and memory (remember/recall/forget). However, for the nominal Bpstat statistical domain there is no keyword search over series or datasets — navigation requires knowing domain/dataset ids in advance — and the extreme scatter across unrelated domains leaves each subsystem only partially developed.

Resources