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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description discloses important behavioral traits beyond annotations, including the fill check (theoretical vs realizable edge), partition filter (placeholder slugs), and semantic anchor (Jaccard similarity). It warns about not trading when overround exists only at last-trade. Consistent with annotations (readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint).

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is well-structured with clear sections (default mode, event mode, topic mode, semantic anchor, partition filter, response, fill check). Every sentence adds value, and the length is justified by the tool's complexity. It is front-loaded with the main purpose.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity, the description covers all necessary aspects: parameter modes, edge cases (placeholder slugs, low similarity), response format, fill check logic, and references to related tools. No gaps for an agent to misuse the tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The description adds substantial meaning beyond the input schema, explaining default mode (no args = trending_scan), accepted input formats (full Polymarket URLs), and detailed behavior for each parameter (event: walks child markets, date-axis ordering; topic: cross-event scanning with similarity filter).

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It specifies the resource (Polymarket arbitrage opportunities) and methodology, distinguishing itself from sibling tools like 'polymarket_fill_risk' and 'polymarket_edges.'

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance on when to use each mode: 'event (recommended for a specific market)' and 'topic (for cross-event scanning).' It also explains when not to trade (if realizable_edge_pp <= 0) and directs to 'polymarket_fill_risk' for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The tool set mixes three distinct domains: BookBrainz entity access (browse, lookup, search), Pipeworx data routing (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, discover_tools, suggest_questions), and Polymarket betting analysis. Multiple tools have overlapping purposes, particularly the ask_pipeworx variants and the various polymarket_* tools, which an agent could easily confuse.

Naming Consistency4/5

All tool names follow a readable snake_case convention. While some are single verbs (browse, lookup, search), others use compound patterns (ask_pipeworx_grounded, polymarket_edge_tracker, pipeworx_trending), and there are a few noun-first names (entity_profile, pipeworx_feedback, recent_changes). The inconsistency is minor and does not hinder readability.

Tool Count2/5

With 34 tools, this is a large surface for a server named Bookbrainz, yet only 3 tools (browse, lookup, search) actually serve that domain. The remaining 31 tools are unrelated Pipeworx/Polymarket functionality, making the tool count inappropriate for the stated server purpose and suggesting a mislabeled or overloaded server.

Completeness2/5

The BookBrainz domain is severely incomplete: it offers read-only access (search, browse, lookup) but no create, update, or delete operations for entities. For the broader Pipeworx/Polymarket functionality, coverage is quite deep, but that is not the server's stated domain. This leaves a fundamental gap for the BookBrainz use case.