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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true, openWorldHint=true, idempotentHint=true, destructiveHint=false. The description adds valuable behavioral context: fill check logic, semantic anchor for Jaccard similarity, partition filter for placeholder slugs, response structure, and handling of fill check results. No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is lengthy but well-structured with clear sections for each mode. Every sentence adds value, but it could be more concise. Front-loaded with main purpose.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

No output schema, but the description fully explains the response structure (opportunities[], partition_check, fill_check details). Covers all input modes and edge cases like placeholder filtering and Jaccard similarity. Very complete for a tool with 2 optional params.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%. The description adds beyond schema: accepted formats for event (URLs) and topic (seed question), and explanation of no-args mode. This provides rich semantic context for the agent.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes between three modes (no args, event, topic) and specifies the resource (Polymarket). It differentiates from sibling tools like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidelines on when to use each mode: no args for trending scan, event for specific market, topic for cross-event scanning. It also explains why cross-event mode is beneficial and references sibling tool polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, providing alternatives.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Most tools have highly detailed descriptions that clarify their distinct roles, and the pipeworx/boi/polymarket families are individually distinguishable. However, ask_pipeworx_beta is explicitly described as currently identical to ask_pipeworx (a true duplicate), and the polymarket tools (arbitrage, edges, edge_tracker, fill_risk, kalshi_spread) share overlapping purpose and could cause misselection despite their lengthy docs.

Naming Consistency3/5

Many tools follow a clear verb_noun pattern (compare_entities, discover_tools, resolve_entity, validate_claim), but a large subset uses noun-first or prefixed compound names (ai_visibility_check, bet_research, boi_exchange_rate, polymarket_arbitrage). The naming is readable and group-consistent (boi_*, polymarket_*, ask_pipeworx*) but the overall convention is mixed rather than uniform.

Tool Count2/5

At 34 tools, the set exceeds the 25+ threshold for 'too many' and spans many unrelated domains (data lookup, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions, AI visibility, llms.txt generation, feedback). The broad scope explains the count, but many tools feel like add-on utilities rather than a tightly scoped server, making the surface feel bloated.

Completeness4/5

The core domain—authoritative structured data access—is extremely well covered: universal routing, grounded mode, deep research, entity profiles, comparisons, claim validation, resolution, discovery, and suggestions. Minor gaps exist (no explicit tool for fetching a pipeworx:// citation URI directly, no update operation for subscriptions), but agents can work around these via the router and existing subscription lifecycle tools.

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