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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.8/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint, idempotentHint, and destructiveHint false, consistent with a scanning tool. The description adds significant behavior: explains internal checks (partition_check, fill_check), semantic anchor, partition filter, and response structure. No contradiction with annotations; it provides rich context beyond what annotations convey.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is front-loaded with purpose and structured by mode. While verbose (details on partition_check and fill_check), it remains well-organized. Every sentence adds value, but slight trimming could improve conciseness without loss of clarity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite no output schema, the description details the return format (opportunities[] with fields, partition_check object) and edge cases (skipped_low_similarity, placeholders_filtered). It references sibling tools for further detail. For a complex arbitrage tool, this is comprehensive and leaves minimal ambiguity.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Input schema describes both parameters with 100% coverage, but the description adds meaning by explaining how each parameter affects the mode (event slug, topic seed) and that full URLs are accepted for event. This extra context enhances understanding beyond the schema alone.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description starts with a clear statement: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It distinguishes between three modes (no args, event, topic) and differentiates from sibling tools like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk by focusing on arbitrage detection with specific algorithms.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan,' 'event (recommended for a specific market),' and 'topic (for cross-event scanning).' It also warns when not to trade: 'realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it.' References polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, clearly indicating alternative tools.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Disambiguation4/5

Most tools have distinct purposes, but some overlap exists between ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, and validate_claim, which could cause confusion. However, the descriptions help clarify when to use each.

Naming Consistency3/5

Tool names use a mix of patterns (verb_noun, noun_noun, adjective_noun) but are consistently lowercase with underscores. Some names are vague like 'forever' and 'recent_alerts', but overall readable.

Tool Count3/5

32 tools is on the high side for a single server, but many are specialized and serve a broad data query platform. Some tools are meta-tools covering multiple use cases, which could reduce the need for so many.

Completeness4/5

The tool set covers a wide range of functionalities including data querying, entity resolution, comparisons, verification, memory, subscriptions, and prediction markets. Minor gaps like data export are not critical for its purpose.