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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description is exceptionally transparent about behavior beyond the annotations. It discloses matching methodology (token-overlap, not shared resolution source), exclusion of unknown metric_type/match_subtype legs, all compatibility_codes and their meanings, the fee schedule omission, and the gross-vs-net caveat. This gives an agent a clear mental model of when results can be trusted.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is well-structured with labeled sections (TWO MODES, RESPONSE, SAFETY FIELDS) and every sentence carries substantive information. It is long, but that length is largely justified given the tool's complexity and the absence of an output schema. A small amount of repetition — 'in EITHER mode' and the pre-mapped caveat — keeps it from a perfect score.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity, no output schema, and three optional parameters, the description covers everything an agent needs: how to invoke either mode, what the response contains, which safety fields must be read, the meanings of compatibility and temporal flags, fee limitations, and how unclassifiable legs are handled. The repeated emphasis on reading compatibility warnings even when matched_pairs>0 is a valuable safety guard.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is already 100%, but the description adds real semantic value: it explains that `topic` auto-fetches the matching event on each venue, that the explicit tickers/slugs override the mapped side, and that both modes run the identical token-overlap matcher. It also lists the exact valid topic values, going beyond the schema's enum-free definition.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description immediately names the exact function: computing a cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. It goes well beyond the title by explaining the two modes, the 10 macro shortcuts, and the response output, leaving no ambiguity about what the tool does. This also differentiates it from sibling Polymarket tools like polymarket_edges or polymarket_arbitrage by its explicit cross-venue scope.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives clear when-to-use context: use `topic` for pre-mapped shortcuts and explicit tickers/slugs for custom pairings. It also warns that pre-mapped topics often return compatibility warnings and that spreads are gross, not net tradeable edges. However, it does not explicitly name sibling alternatives or state conditions for choosing this tool over them.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools occupy clearly different niches, but ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are currently identical, ask_pipeworx_grounded and deep_research heavily overlap the same router concept, and bet_research/polymarket_edges/polymarket_arbitrage all target similar 'find an edge' territory. An agent would need to read very long descriptions carefully to avoid selecting the wrong tool.

Naming Consistency4/5

Names are consistently lowercase snake_case and usefully grouped by prefixes like bnm_, polymarket_, and pipeworx_, which makes the set fairly scannable. However, conventions mix verb-first names (ask_, discover_, resolve_, validate_) with noun-phrase names (entity_profile, recent_alerts, recent_changes), so it is not a uniform verb_noun pattern.

Tool Count2/5

36 tools is well beyond the typical well-scoped 3-15 tool range, and the server bundles several distinct domains: BNM data, the Pipeworx research platform, prediction-market analysis, and memory/subscription management. This breadth would be better split into separate focused servers.

Completeness4/5

The BNM-specific surface is well covered, with dedicated tools for the main series plus a generic bnm_endpoint passthrough for anything else. The broader data side is also unusually complete, with routing, grounded answers, deep research, entity resolution, profiles, comparisons, and claim verification; only minor gaps remain, such as no dedicated historical endpoint for some BNM series.