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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations indicate read-only, open-world, idempotent. Description adds deep behavioral context: partition check mechanics (sum of YES prices ≈1, deviation >3pp triggers signal), semantic anchor (Jaccard similarity ≥0.30), partition filter (placeholder slugs), and fill check against live CLOB depth. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Front-loaded with purpose, then structured by mode. Dense but informative; could be slightly more concise but no wasted sentences. Capitalization and layout aid readability.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

No output schema, but description details the response structure for both modes (opportunities array, partition_check fields, fill check). Covers edge cases (placeholder filtering, thin legs, custom sizing via sibling). Contextually complete for a complex tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with descriptions for both parameters. Description adds further meaning: event parameter accepts slugs or full URLs, topic parameter examples, and clarifies that each mode triggers different scanning logic. Exceeds schema value.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Clearly states 'find arbitrage opportunities via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks'. Distinguishes three modes (no args, event, topic) and differentiates from siblings like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidance on when to use each mode: no args for trending scan, event for specific market, topic for cross-event scan. Recommends event mode for a specific market and explains cross-event mode's advantage. Also warns when not to trade (realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0).

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tool groups have unclear boundaries: ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are explicitly identical right now, polymarket_edges / polymarket_arbitrage / polymarket_edge_tracker / polymarket_fill_risk / polymarket_kalshi_spread / bet_research all push prediction-market opportunities and can be confused, and ai_visibility_check is nested inside scan_competitor_ai_presence. discover_tools and suggest_questions also overlap as tool-discovery entry points.

Naming Consistency3/5

Everything is snake_case and mostly descriptive, but conventions are mixed: verb-first names (resolve_entity, validate_claim, compare_entities, search_within) sit beside noun-first names (entity_profile, recent_changes, bet_research, polymarket_edges), and brand-prefixed tools (pipeworx_feedback, pipeworx_trending) have unprefixed functional siblings (list_subscriptions, recent_alerts). The two actual Base64 tools (base64_encode, base64_decode) don't match the dominant Pipeworx naming style at all.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools is heavy for any single server, and the mismatch is extreme: the server is named 'Base64' yet only 2 of 33 tools relate to encoding/decoding — the other 31 form a sprawling data-research platform. Even judged as a data platform, the count exceeds the comfortable range and includes near-duplicates (the ask_pipeworx family, the Polymarket family).

Completeness4/5

The factual-data surface is well covered: query, grounded lookup, deep research, entity profiling, comparison, claim verification, entity resolution, subscriptions (subscribe/list/unsubscribe/recent_alerts), memory (remember/recall/forget), feedback, and tool discovery all exist with no obvious dead ends. The Base64 encoding domain is also complete (encode/decode across four variants). Minor gaps exist (e.g., no way to update a profile or edit memory entries) but they're workable.

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