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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already indicate read-only, idempotent, open world. Description adds extensive behavioral context: explains monotonicity violations, partition checks, semantic anchor filtering, partition placeholder filter, fill check with realizable vs theoretical edge. Warns about trading only when conditions met. Far exceeds baseline.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Description is lengthy but well-organized with bold section headers (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK). Front-loads purpose. Some verbosity could be trimmed, but structure aids readability for complex tool.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite no output schema, description fully details response structure (opportunities array with gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, etc.) and covers all behavioral aspects: parameter modes, internal checks, edge cases (placeholders, low similarity). Complete for tool complexity.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, but description adds substantial meaning: explains event slug format, topic as seed question, and internal checks for each mode. Provides concrete examples and behavioral nuances (e.g., Jaccard similarity, placeholder fractions). Significantly enhances schema descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Starts with a clear verb+resource+method: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' Distinguishes from siblings like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk. The purpose is immediately obvious.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidance on when to use each parameter: no args for trending scan, event for specific market, topic for cross-event. Explains cross-event mode catches patterns single-event misses. Provides caution against trading when fill check shows no realizable edge. Lacks explicit exclusion of siblings but context is clear.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools have overlapping purposes, especially the various ask_pipeworx variants and entity research tools (entity_profile, compare_entities, recent_changes). The subtle differences between ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded are likely to cause agent misselection.

Naming Consistency2/5

Tool names use inconsistent patterns: snake_case (ask_pipeworx, query_layer) mixed with descriptive phrases (ai_visibility_check, generate_llms_txt) and no clear verb_noun structure. Some names are vague (process, run) though those are absent here; overall naming is arbitrary.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is too many for an Arcgis Tigard server. The majority are generic Pipeworx data query tools (27+ tools) that have little to do with ArcGIS, making the tool count feel bloated and unfocused for the server's stated purpose.

Completeness1/5

The server severely lacks ArcGIS-specific functionality. Only three tools (search_datasets, query_layer, layer_info) are relevant to ArcGIS; the rest are unrelated Pipeworx tools. Essential ArcGIS operations like editing, analysis, or visualization are missing, making the surface incomplete.