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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Discloses internal algorithms (monotonicity, partition checks), fill-check behavior, and edge cases (placeholder slugs, low similarity). Annotations confirm read-only and idempotent; no contradiction.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Description is detailed but front-loaded with main function. Some technical depth (Jaccard threshold, partition filter) may be dense, but all information serves clarity. Could trim slightly without losing value.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

No output schema, but description fully explains response structure (opportunities array, partition check fields, fill check). Mentions related tool for custom sizing. Covers edge cases and limitations.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, and description greatly expands on each parameter: explains event slugs, topic examples, and behavioral differences. Adds context beyond schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes three modes: no args (trending scan), event (single-event), and topic (cross-event).

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit when-to-use: recommend event for specific markets, topic for cross-event scanning. Includes caveats about Jaccard similarity, partition filter, and fill check warning when not to trade.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools are near-duplicates or strongly overlapping: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded are only mode/version variants, and discover_tools overlaps with suggest_questions, ai_visibility_check with scan_competitor_ai_presence, and the Polymarket tools with each other. An agent would frequently need a deep read of the descriptions to know which one is truly appropriate.

Naming Consistency4/5

The naming is almost entirely snake_case and mostly follows a verb_noun or domain_noun pattern, e.g. query_layer, list_subscriptions, resolve_entity, compare_entities. Minor deviations like entity_profile, pipeworx_feedback, and polymarket_arbitrage are noun-first, but the overall pattern is still recognizable and predictable.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools for a server branded 'Arcgis Tallahassee' is far too many, especially since only a handful of them are GIS-related. The rest constitute a large general-purpose Pipeworx data platform, which at this tool count becomes unwieldy and will increase an agent's selection failure rate.

Completeness3/5

The core read-only GIS flow is covered (search_datasets → layer_info → query_layer), and the Pipeworx side is broad. However, there are notable gaps: no ArcGIS service management, no layer/feature editing, no spatial operations, and no deeper GIS functions. Because the server's stated purpose is ArcGIS-focused, the overall surface is only partially complete relative to that domain.