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Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the read-only and idempotent annotations, the description discloses critical behavior: caching at the KV level for 1 hour keyed on all knobs, the three response segments with model details, the per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction, the placeholder-slug filter, the rare-by-design nature of concentrated longshots, and the fed candidates exclusion. It also explains the 24h-move warning and diagnostics so callers understand why segments may be empty.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured with typographic sections (FIVE MODEL FAMILIES, TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS, RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL, _diagnostics). It front-loads the core purpose in the first sentence. Every major section adds necessary detail for a tool with no output schema. It is dense but not bloated, though the 'FIVE MODEL FAMILIES' statement appears inconsistent with the three families explicitly listed.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description thoroughly explains the response structure: by_segment with model_driven, structural_arbitrage, concentrated_longshot; fed_candidates/fed_note; and _diagnostics. It details the fields carried on each opportunity (edge_pp_net, kelly_fraction, liquidity, spread_pp, volume), the 24h-move warning, and why segments might be empty. It also covers caching behavior. This is highly complete given the tool's complexity.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

All 9 parameters are fully described in the input schema (100% coverage), so the baseline is 3. The description adds value by explaining relationships between knobs, e.g., min_partition_leg_kelly specifically applies to partition_overround legs and that min_kelly does not filter partition arbs because parent-level kelly_fraction_half is 0 by design. This clarifies cross-parameter behavior not obvious from the schema alone.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb and resource: 'Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price.' This clearly states what the tool does and distinguishes it from siblings like polymarket_arbitrage and polymarket_edge_tracker by emphasizing the Pipeworx data comparison and the 'what should I bet on today' use case.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives clear context: 'Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets.' It also explains how knobs tailor output, such as min_liquidity and max_spread_pp to drop unrealizable edges. However, it does not explicitly exclude alternatives or name when not to use this tool versus siblings like polymarket_arbitrage.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.4/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several near-duplicate tool clusters exist: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta (explicitly identical right now), and ask_pipeworx_grounded overlap heavily, as do polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_fill_risk, and polymarket_kalshi_spread. The three ArcGIS tools (search_datasets, layer_info, query_layer) are distinct, but their purpose is drowned out by the unrelated Pipeworx data tools.

Naming Consistency2/5

Most names use snake_case, but the pattern is inconsistent: some are verb_noun (ask_pipeworx, search_datasets, resolve_entity), some are noun_noun (layer_info, entity_profile, pipeworx_feedback), and some are adjective_noun (recent_alerts, recent_changes). Verbs are also inconsistent across similar actions (scan_ vs check_ vs compare_, and three different polymarket_ verbs plus a bare bet_research).

Tool Count1/5

34 tools is already heavy, but the server is named Arcgis Pittsburgh and only 3 of the 34 tools relate to Pittsburgh GIS data; the other 31 belong to unrelated domains (Pipeworx data lookup, prediction markets, memory, npm auditing). This is an extreme scope mismatch — the tool count is far too high for the stated purpose and mostly irrelevant noise.

Completeness2/5

For the ArcGIS Pittsburgh domain, the surface has basic read coverage (search datasets, inspect layer schema, query records) but no update/delete/write operations and no geospatial analysis tools, which are significant gaps for a GIS server. The broader tool set is a grab bag of research, prediction-market, and memory features that don't form a coherent lifecycle for any single domain, so completeness cannot be assessed as a unified surface.