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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description is extraordinarily transparent about behavior beyond annotations. It discloses the Jaccard similarity threshold (≥0.30), partition filter rules (>20% placeholder fraction returns null), fill check mechanics against live CLOB depth, and the interpretation of realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 (do not trade). This far exceeds the readOnlyHint/openWorldHint/idempotentHint annotations by adding critical domain logic.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long, but it is well-structured with clear sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) and front-loaded with the core purpose and argument patterns. Every sentence adds substantive value (thresholds, examples, output details), making it dense rather than wasteful. However, it is not as minimal as the top-tier example; a few details could be streamlined without loss.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite having no output schema, the description fully compensates by describing the response shape ('opportunities[] with gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning...') and including edge cases like thin_legs and skipped_low_similarity. It also contextualizes when to combine with polymarket_fill_risk. For a complex tool with 2 optional parameters, this is complete.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% for both parameters, and the description goes far beyond the schema. It provides examples of valid values ('fed-decision-may-2026', 'when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k'), explains full Polymarket URLs are accepted, and details the distinct behavior for each mode (event vs topic), including what types of insights each yields. This enriches both parameters considerably.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb+resource+method: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes itself from sibling tools by detailing unique mechanisms (monotonicity, partition-check, trending scan) and explicitly names alternative tools for different tasks (e.g., polymarket_fill_risk for sizing).

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit mode selection: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan... pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan.' It also points to an alternative tool: 'For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.' However, it does not fully delineate when not to use this tool versus other edge-finding siblings like polymarket_edges or polymarket_kalshi_spread, so it falls short of a perfect 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Many tools have distinct purposes, but there is overlap within the Pipeworx family (ask_pipeworx vs ask_pipeworx_grounded) and Polymarket tools (bet_research, polymarket_edges, etc.). Descriptions are detailed and help differentiate, but the sheer number of tools from different domains can cause an agent to select the wrong one for a given task.

Naming Consistency2/5

Naming is highly inconsistent: some tools follow verb_noun (ask_pipeworx, compare_entities), others are nouns (layer_info, entity_profile), and some have prefixes (pipeworx_trending, polymarket_arbitrage). There is no uniform pattern, making the set feel chaotic.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools is far too many for a server named 'Arcgis Maricopa', which only has 3 GIS-specific tools. The remaining tools are from unrelated domains (polymarket betting, general Pipeworx queries, utilities), making the tool set bloated and unfocused for its stated purpose.

Completeness3/5

For the ArcGIS domain, the set is minimal (only search, schema, and query) and lacks management or analysis tools. However, the broader toolset covers many data domains (finance, drugs, prediction markets), but with gaps like no update/delete operations for the GIS data. The overall coverage is mixed.