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Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true and destructiveHint=false, but the description adds substantial behavioral context: caching at KV level with 1h TTL keyed on knobs, excluded Fed bets with reasoning, a 24h-move warning when recent price changes exceed the edge, and detailed diagnostics to explain empty segments. It also explains that edge is net of slippage and that Kelly fractions are capped at 0.25, going well beyond the annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but extremely information-dense, organized into clear sections: purpose, model families, response structure, knobs, and caching. It front-loads the core purpose in the first sentence and every sentence adds necessary detail for a complex tool with no output schema. The use of capitalization and colons makes it scannable without sacrificing completeness.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (9 parameters, no output schema, multi-segment responses), the description is remarkably complete. It explains the three model families, response top-level structure (by_segment, fed_candidates, _diagnostics), why segments might be empty, and the caching behavior. It even covers exclusion of Fed bets due to unreliable signals. The presence of diagnostics addresses the common agent frustration of empty results with no explanation. This is exceptionally thorough.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with detailed per-parameter descriptions, so the baseline is 3. The description adds value by grouping parameters under 'TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS' and explaining their collective purpose (e.g., min_liquidity/max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable, min_partition_leg_kelly overrides min_kelly for partitions). This helps the agent understand how to reason about the knobs together, slightly elevating above baseline.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb+resource: 'Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price.' This clearly distinguishes the tool from siblings like polymarket_arbitrage (which focuses on arbitrage between markets) and polymarket_edge_tracker (which tracks edges over time). The stated use case is targeted and actionable.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides a clear use case: 'Built for "what should I bet on today"' and explains that agents avoid paging hundreds of markets. It also describes the tuning knobs (min_liquidity, max_spread_pp) and caching behavior. However, it does not explicitly name alternative tools or state when NOT to use this tool (e.g., if you need historical edge tracking), leaving a minor gap.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools overlap in purpose, particularly the ask_pipeworx variants (stable, beta, grounded) and deep_research, making it difficult for an agent to choose correctly. Additionally, the Arcgis-specific tools are buried under numerous general Pipeworx tools.

Naming Consistency4/5

Most tools follow a verb_noun pattern (e.g., ask_pipeworx, compare_entities), but there are minor inconsistencies like ai_visibility_check vs scan_competitor_ai_presence and the simpler Arcgis tool names.

Tool Count2/5

With 34 tools, the server is overloaded, especially since the majority are Pipeworx meta-tools unrelated to the Arcgis Lubbock purpose. A well-scoped ArcGIS server would have far fewer tools.

Completeness2/5

For an ArcGIS server, only three tools directly serve that purpose (search_datasets, layer_info, query_layer), lacking editing, analysis, or visualization capabilities. The remaining tools address a completely different domain.