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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

While annotations already declare readOnly, openWorld, idempotent, and non-destructive, the description adds valuable behavioral context: the semantic anchor (Jaccard similarity ≥0.30), partition filter (placeholder fraction >20% returns null), FILL CHECK logic with realizable edge ≤0 warning, and the fact that it uses live CLOB depth. No contradictions with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense yet every sentence contributes useful information: mode specifics, thresholds, filters, output structure, and fill-check behavior. It is front-loaded with the core purpose, and while lengthy, the complexity of the tool justifies the detail. There is no fluff or redundancy.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description thoroughly covers return values: opportunities[] fields (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context) and partition_check details. It also explains edge cases (thin legs, skipped_low_similarity, placeholder filters) and provides safety warnings (do not trade if realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0), making it fully self-contained for an AI agent.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The input schema already provides full descriptions of the event and topic parameters, but the tool description exceeds this by offering concrete examples ('fed-decision-may-2026', 'when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k'), explaining mode-specific behavior, and detailing how each parameter influences the scan. This significantly enriches the schema's meaning.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose with a specific verb and resource: "Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks." It distinguishes itself from sibling tools like polymarket_fill_risk by noting that custom sizing should use that tool, and it outlines specific modes (trending, event, topic) that add clarity.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly provides when-to-use guidance: "Call with NO args for a trending_scan... pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan." It also recommends the event mode for specific markets and mentions the alternative for custom sizing (polymarket_fill_risk), giving clear context and exclusions.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools have overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, and validate_claim all handle natural-language data queries, with ask_pipeworx_beta currently identical to ask_pipeworx. discover_tools and suggest_questions both exist to help agents find tools, and the five Polymarket tools have subtle, hard-to-distinguish boundaries. Agents will frequently select the wrong tool without careful reading.

Naming Consistency4/5

Tool names are mostly lowercase snake_case with verb-noun structure (query_layer, search_datasets, resolve_entity), which is consistent and readable. However, some names break the pattern (entity_profile, layer_info, recent_changes, pipeworx_feedback) and the prefixes are not uniform. Still, the convention is predictable enough to navigate.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is a heavy count, and the vast majority are unrelated to the server's stated 'Arcgis Lacounty' purpose. Only three tools (search_datasets, query_layer, layer_info) serve the named GIS domain, while the rest form a sprawling collection of data-lookup, prediction-market, and utility tools. This is a severe scope mismatch.

Completeness1/5

The tool surface is severely incomplete for an ArcGIS LA County server: no layer listing beyond keyword search, no metadata endpoints, no editing, no spatial operations. The broader tool set lacks a coherent domain, making coverage impossible to assess beyond noting the glaring absence of core GIS functionality.