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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description reveals extensive behavioral details beyond annotations: default behavior scans top ~200 markets, event mode walks child markets and checks ordering/partition sums, topic mode searches related events with a Jaccard similarity threshold, placeholder slugs are filtered, and fill check prices against live CLOB depth. No contradiction with readOnly/idempotent annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense and well-structured with clear sections (modes, semantic anchor, partition filter, response, fill check). Every sentence carries useful information, but it is quite long and could be slightly tightened without losing value. Still, for a complex multi-mode tool, the length is justified.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

The description covers all essential aspects: input modes, response structure (opportunities[], partition_check), edge cases (skipped_low_similarity, placeholders), and post-processing (fill check with realizable vs theoretical edge). It also references a related tool for custom sizing. Without an output schema, this description sufficiently explains return values and interpretation.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema descriptions already cover 100%, but the tool description adds substantial meaning: event accepts full URLs, topic examples are given, and the behavioral implications of each parameter are explained (single-event vs cross-event). It clarifies how each parameter changes the scan scope and output structure.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb and resource: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It distinguishes modes (trending_scan, event, topic) and is clearly differentiated from siblings like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk by naming the alternative for custom sizing.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidance is provided for when to use each mode: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan... pass event... or topic...' It also states that custom sizing should use polymarket_fill_risk, and explains that cross-event mode catches patterns single-event misses. This gives clear when-to and when-not-to context.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.5/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools have overlapping purposes, such as ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, and also multiple Polymarket tools (bet_research, polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage). Descriptions try to differentiate but the boundaries are unclear, causing confusion.

Naming Consistency2/5

Naming conventions are mixed: some use snake_case (ask_pipeworx, query_layer), some use descriptive phrases (entity_profile, recent_changes), and there is no consistent verb_noun pattern. The variety makes it hard to predict tool names.

Tool Count1/5

33 tools is far too many for a server named 'Arcgis Fairfield', as most tools are unrelated to GIS or Fairfield (e.g., npm dependency checks, prediction markets, AI visibility). The tool count severely mismatches the server's purported scope.

Completeness1/5

The server's stated purpose is ArcGIS Fairfield, but only 3 tools (layer_info, query_layer, search_datasets) relate to that domain. Critical GIS operations like updating features or managing services are missing, while the vast majority of tools are for other domains.