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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Even though annotations already declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, and destructiveHint=false, the description adds substantial behavioral detail: it explains FILL CHECK behavior (realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means overround only at last-trade, 'do not trade it'), Jaccard similarity filtering, placeholder filtering returning null signals, and exposes 'skipped_low_similarity' as output. This context significantly expands what the agent knows about the tool's behavior beyond annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long and dense with technical detail, but it's well-structured with labeled sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) and front-loaded with the core purpose. While every sentence provides useful information, the extreme length and technical jargon could have been trimmed or split into separate documentation without losing clarity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity and the absence of an output schema, the description fully specifies the return shape (opportunities[], partition_check, fill check metrics), edge cases (null arb signal, thin_legs), and references to related tools for complementary functionality. The combination of annotations and description leaves no major gap for an agent to invoke it correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, but the description provides deep semantic guidance: it defines each parameter's use case, gives concrete examples ('fed-decision-may-2026', 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal'), and clarifies the no-args default (trending_scan). It also explains how event vs topic modes differ and what output to expect, adding far more value than the schema's short descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb+resource: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes three modes (trending_scan, event, topic) and names the exact approach, making it easy to understand what the tool does and how it differs from likely siblings.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives explicit when-to-use guidance: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan... pass `event` for the strongest per-event partition_check, or `topic` for a themed cross-event scan.' It also recommends event mode for a specific market and names an alternative for custom sizing: 'For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.' This goes beyond minimal context and clearly directs the agent.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools are easy to confuse: ask_pipeworx_beta is currently identical to ask_pipeworx, deep_research overlaps heavily with ask_pipeworx/ask_pipeworx_grounded, and the six polymarket_* tools have closely related purposes. ai_visibility_check and scan_competitor_ai_presence also overlap, making selection error-prone.

Naming Consistency4/5

Almost all tools use lowercase snake_case and mostly follow a verb_noun pattern (query_layer, resolve_entity, scan_dependency, validate_claim). A few noun-style names like entity_profile, layer_info, and pipeworx_trending deviate slightly, but the overall convention is predictable.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is well past the heavy threshold, and the server is named 'Arcgis Charlotte' while only three tools actually relate to ArcGIS. The rest form a sprawling Pipeworx research, prediction-market, subscription, and memory toolkit, which creates a severe scope mismatch.

Completeness2/5

For the Pipeworx data side the surface is quite thorough, but for the declared ArcGIS Charlotte purpose it is thin: search_datasets, layer_info, and query_layer provide read-only access with no update/delete, analysis, or dataset management. The tool set therefore has a significant gap relative to its stated domain.