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Glama

Arcgis Carlsbad

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.4/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare a read-only, idempotent operation. The description adds substantial behavioral context beyond that: caching ('Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs'), diagnostic output ('_diagnostics... so callers can see WHY a segment is empty'), and practical caveats ('your edge may already be in the price', '1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable'). This far exceeds the minimum required.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness2/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is a single, dense wall of text covering model formulas, gate thresholds, response payloads, and knobs without any paragraph breaks, bullet lists, or section headers. While the first sentence front-loads the purpose, the rest is overwhelming and hard to skim. It would benefit greatly from structured formatting even if the content stays the same.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

The description is remarkably complete: it explains the three response segments, the fields carried by each opportunity (edge_pp_net, kelly_fraction, market.liquidity, etc.), the top-level response shape (by_segment, fed_candidates/fed_note, _diagnostics), and caching behavior. Since there is no output schema, this prose is essential for the agent to fully understand the return value and debugging information.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with detailed parameter descriptions, so the baseline is 3. The description adds extra meaning by explaining knob interactions: 'TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable' and the nuance of min_partition_leg_kelly (why min_kelly doesn't filter partition arbs). It also gives real-world context for slippage_pp ('Polymarket has zero trading fees... bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade').

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description states 'Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price,' which clearly specifies the verb, resource, and purpose. It further distinguishes from siblings by detailing three distinct model families and tradeable-edge knobs, leaving no ambiguity about what the tool does.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly frames the use case: 'Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets.' It also warns about limitations (Fed signal unreliability, rare-by-design longshots) and knob effects, but it does not explicitly name alternatives or provide when-not-to-use guidance. This is clear context but lacks explicit exclusions.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.5/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have overlapping purposes, e.g., multiple 'ask' tools (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research) and multiple 'compare' tools (compare_entities, scan_competitor_ai_presence). Descriptions are verbose but often don't clearly distinguish when to use each, causing confusion.

Naming Consistency1/5

Naming is highly inconsistent: snake_case (ai_visibility_check), camelCase (polymarket_fill_risk), and arbitrary prefixes (scan_, generate_, etc.). No consistent verb_noun pattern; e.g., 'query_layer' vs 'search_datasets' vs 'layer_info' all involve data retrieval but use different patterns.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools is excessive for a server purportedly focused on ArcGIS Carlsbad. Many tools are unrelated (e.g., polymarket betting, npm package scanning). The core ArcGIS functionality could be covered by 3-5 tools, but the server is bloated with Pipeworx utilities.

Completeness3/5

The ArcGIS portion lacks update/delete capabilities and is limited to querying. The Pipeworx tools cover a broad range of data sources but introduce many dependencies and meta-tools, creating a cluttered surface with dead ends (e.g., tools requiring paid accounts without fallback).

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