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Polymarket Fill Risk

polymarket_fill_risk
Read-onlyIdempotent

Realizable-vs-theoretical edge check against live CLOB order-book depth. REQUIRES one of market (single-market mode) or event (basket/partition mode). SINGLE-MARKET: pass a market slug/URL + side (buy_yes|sell_yes|buy_no|sell_no, default buy_yes) + size_usd (default 1000 — max spend on buys, target proceeds on sells); walks the ladder and returns top_of_book, vwap_fill_price, slippage_pp, shares_filled, max_fillable_usd, and a verdict (clean|degraded|cannot_fill). BASKET: pass an event slug/URL + side (sell_yes = capture overround by selling every leg, buy_yes = capture underround; default auto from partition sum) + size_usd interpreted as settlement notional S (shares per leg; each share pays $1); returns theoretical_sum vs realizable_sum (top-of-book vs VWAP across all legs), capture_ratio, profit_usd at executed size, per-leg fill detail, thin_legs[], max_clean_notional_usd, and forced_directional_risk naming the legs most likely to strand you unhedged. USE THIS before acting on any polymarket_arbitrage SELL/BUY-EVERY-LEG signal or any polymarket_edges trade above ~$500 — theoretical overround on thin books is not capturable, and partial basket fills convert an arb into an unhedged directional position (the dominant loss mode in real arb-bot P&L).

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
sideNoSingle-market: buy_yes | sell_yes | buy_no | sell_no (default buy_yes). Basket: sell_yes | buy_yes (default auto — sell if partition sum > 1, buy if < 1).
eventNoBasket mode: event slug or full polymarket.com URL — checks every leg of the partition.
marketNoSingle-market mode: market slug or full polymarket.com URL.
size_usdNoSingle-market: USD to spend (buys) or target proceeds (sells). Basket: settlement notional — shares per leg, each paying $1 at resolution. Default 1000, clamp 10–1,000,000.

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true, destructiveHint=false, openWorldHint=true, idempotentHint=true. The description goes beyond by detailing what the tool does internally: 'walks the ladder', returns verdicts and fill details, identifies thin legs, and warns about partial basket fills converting arbs into directional positions. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but every sentence carries information: purpose, mode details, outputs, and usage guidance. It is front-loaded and logically organized (single-market then basket). Slightly dense, but justified by the tool's multi-mode complexity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

No output schema exists, so the description fully carries the burden of explaining return values. It lists all outputs for both modes (top_of_book, vwap_fill_price, slippage_pp, shares_filled, max_fillable_usd, verdict, theoretical_sum, realizable_sum, capture_ratio, profit_usd, per-leg detail, thin_legs, max_clean_notional_usd, forced_directional_risk). It also covers edge cases (thin books, partial fills) and usage context.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3. The description mirrors what the schema already states (defaults, clamp ranges, mode-specific meanings). It adds minor emphasis on 'single-market' vs 'basket' semantics, but does not introduce significant value beyond the structured fields.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb+resource+scope: 'Realizable-vs-theoretical edge check against live CLOB order-book depth.' It clearly distinguishes two modes (single-market vs basket) and explicitly ties to sibling tools polymarket_arbitrage and polymarket_edges, disambiguating from other Polymarket-related tools.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly states when to use: 'USE THIS before acting on any polymarket_arbitrage SELL/BUY-EVERY-LEG signal or any polymarket_edges trade above ~$500.' Also explains why: theoretical overround on thin books is not capturable, and partial basket fills create unhedged directional risk, effectively naming when not to rely on theoretical edges.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation5/5

All 33 tools have clearly distinct purposes, even those that seem related like ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research are well-differentiated by use case and behavior. Memory tools (remember/recall/forget) and subscription tools (subscribe/unsubscribe/list_subscriptions/recent_alerts) are similarly distinct.

Naming Consistency3/5

All tools use snake_case, but naming patterns are mixed: some are single verbs (forget, recall), some verb_noun (query_layer, search_datasets), some noun_noun (entity_profile, layer_info), and some longer phrases (polymarket_kalshi_spread, scan_competitor_ai_presence). While readable, the inconsistency makes the set feel less coherent.

Tool Count2/5

With 33 tools, the surface is overly broad for a server named after a specific ArcGIS dataset. Many tools are unrelated to the core purpose (e.g., polymarket tools, npm scanning, AI visibility), making the count feel bloated and unfocused.

Completeness2/5

For the stated ArcGIS Branson focus, only 3 tools (search_datasets, query_layer, layer_info) are relevant, offering only read access. The rest are a miscellaneous collection from the Pipeworx ecosystem and other domains, leaving obvious gaps in GIS functionality and no write or analysis capabilities.