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Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

TDQS

A4.4/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description adds substantial behavioral context beyond the annotations (readOnly, openWorld, idempotent, non-destructive). It discloses fan-out behavior, GDELT fallback mechanisms, resolution confidence handling, closed-market short-circuiting, wide-spread tradeability flags, and cancellation-rule parsing. It also explains the 'low_confidence_match' and 'market_closed_or_inactive' statuses and how they block further analysis. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long and dense, but every sentence adds unique value for a complex tool. It is well-structured with clear section labels (CLASSIFIERS, FAN-OUT EXAMPLES, RESPONSE SHAPES, etc.), and the first sentence front-loads the primary purpose. It could be slightly trimmed, but given the number of behaviors and return-field explanations, the length is justified.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the high complexity, no output schema, and rich annotations, the description provides an exceptionally complete picture. It explains response shapes, the resolver contract, parent_event extraction, news fallback fields, safety mechanisms, and cancellation-rule risk. An agent would know exactly what to expect from the tool and how to interpret edge cases, making it fully self-sufficient for correct invocation and use.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3. The description repeats the market parameter's accepted formats (slug, URL, question text) but does not add new syntax details beyond the schema. It does provide examples of fan-out behavior that indirectly clarify depth, but it doesn't explicitly connect depth to those examples. The include_raw parameter is not mentioned in the description, though the schema covers it. Overall, the description doesn't significantly enhance parameter understanding beyond what the schema already provides.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's core function: researches a Polymarket bet by pulling relevant Pipeworx data in one call. It specifies the resource (a Polymarket bet), the action (research/pull data), and the method (resolves, classifies, fans out). It also distinguishes from siblings by focusing on a specific bet's evidence packet and market-vs-model comparison, unlike broader tools like deep_research or polymarket_edges.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly tells when to use it: for questions like 'should I bet on X', 'what does the data say about Y', or 'is there edge in Z'. It provides abundant examples of fan-out scenarios. However, it does not explicitly mention alternatives or when not to use it, though the use cases are sufficiently clear. Safety warnings about low-confidence matches and closed markets provide cautionary context.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation5/5

All 33 tools have clearly distinct purposes, even those that seem related like ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research are well-differentiated by use case and behavior. Memory tools (remember/recall/forget) and subscription tools (subscribe/unsubscribe/list_subscriptions/recent_alerts) are similarly distinct.

Naming Consistency3/5

All tools use snake_case, but naming patterns are mixed: some are single verbs (forget, recall), some verb_noun (query_layer, search_datasets), some noun_noun (entity_profile, layer_info), and some longer phrases (polymarket_kalshi_spread, scan_competitor_ai_presence). While readable, the inconsistency makes the set feel less coherent.

Tool Count2/5

With 33 tools, the surface is overly broad for a server named after a specific ArcGIS dataset. Many tools are unrelated to the core purpose (e.g., polymarket tools, npm scanning, AI visibility), making the count feel bloated and unfocused.

Completeness2/5

For the stated ArcGIS Branson focus, only 3 tools (search_datasets, query_layer, layer_info) are relevant, offering only read access. The rest are a miscellaneous collection from the Pipeworx ecosystem and other domains, leaving obvious gaps in GIS functionality and no write or analysis capabilities.