Apology

Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges

Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema

Name	Required	Description
`limit`	No	Top N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
`window`	No	Polymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
`min_kelly`	No	Minimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
`min_edge_pp`	No	Minimum \|edge\| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
`slippage_pp`	No	Assumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw \|edge\| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
`max_spread_pp`	No	Tradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
`min_liquidity`	No	Tradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
`category_filter`	No	Comma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
`min_partition_leg_kelly`	No	Minimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

Changed2 schema fields changedMay 27, 2026

addedInput schema / properties / max_spread_pp

Added value: +{
+  "description": "Tradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.",
+  "type": "number"
+}

addedInput schema / properties / min_liquidity

Added value: +{
+  "description": "Tradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.",
+  "type": "number"
+}

Changed1 schema field changedMay 26, 2026

addedInput schema / properties / min_partition_leg_kelly

Added value: +{
+  "description": "Minimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.",
+  "type": "number"
+}

Changed4 schema fields changedMay 24, 2026

addedInput schema / properties / category_filter

Added value: +{
+  "description": "Comma-separated list to restrict the output: \"model_driven\" (crypto_price + news_momentum), \"structural_arbitrage\" (partition_overround), \"concentrated_longshot\". Combine like \"model_driven,structural_arbitrage\". Default: all.",
+  "type": "string"
+}

changedInput schema / properties / min_edge_pp / description

Previous value: -"Minimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5)."New value: +"Minimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage."

addedInput schema / properties / min_kelly

Added value: +{
+  "description": "Minimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.",
+  "type": "number"
+}

addedInput schema / properties / slippage_pp

Added value: +{
+  "description": "Assumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.",
+  "type": "number"
+}

AddedMay 18, 2026

TDQS

A4.1/5.0

Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Discloses detailed internals (model families, cache behavior, edge calculations, Kelly fractions, filtration rules) far beyond the annotations (readOnlyHint, idempotentHint). No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Well-structured with clear segments and front-loaded purpose, but the description is lengthy (multiple paragraphs). Some redundancy, e.g., repeating cache info. Could be trimmed without losing key information.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given 9 parameters and no output schema, the description covers response structure (by_segment, fed_note, diagnostics) and explains edge calculation, filters, and assumptions. Missing output schema details but compensated by verbose explanation.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema covers all 9 parameters well (100% coverage). Description adds valuable nuance, e.g., explaining that min_kelly does not filter partition arbs and how min_partition_leg_kelly applies instead. This exceeds baseline of 3.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Clear verb 'scan...and return opportunities' and resource 'Polymarket markets'. Stated purpose ('what should I bet on today'). Lacks explicit differentiation from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage or polymarket_edge_tracker, which weakens sibling distinction.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly says 'discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets' and directs to knobs for filtering. No when-not guidance or comparison to alternatives, but the context is clear enough for typical discovery use.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0

Disambiguation2/5

ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded are near-duplicates with beta explicitly identical to the stable version, causing potential misselection. ai_visibility_check and scan_competitor_ai_presence overlap heavily, and resolve_entity/discover_tools/ask_pipeworx all serve lookup purposes. Many tools are distinct, but the boundaries around the core query tools are blurry.

Naming Consistency2/5

Naming is inconsistent: mostly snake_case but mixed verb styles (ask_pipeworx vs pipeworx_feedback vs resolve_entity), brand prefixes applied irregularly, and no uniform convention (e.g., subscribe/unsubscribe/list_subscriptions vs forget/remember/recall vs polymarket_arbitrage/edges/edge_tracker). Some names are descriptive, but the set lacks a predictable pattern.

Tool Count2/5

32 tools is above the 25 threshold for a heavy surface, and the server mixes unrelated domains (data lookup, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions, AI visibility, apology generation). While a large data platform could justify many tools, the random inclusions (apology_generate, generate_llms_txt, scan_dependency) suggest a lack of scoping. Several tools could be consolidated without loss.

Completeness4/5

For the dominant data-research/prediction-market domain, coverage is strong: lookup, grounded verification, research, entity resolution, comparison, arbitrage scanning, fill risk, subscriptions, memory, and discovery are all present. Minor gaps exist (no direct account management beyond subscriptions, no tool to modify stored memories), but agents can mostly achieve their goals. The stray non-domain tools do not hurt completeness of the core platform.

Polymarket Edges

Input Schema

Schema Changelog

TDQS

Glama MCP Gateway

TDQS

Resources