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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • removedInput schema / anyOf
      Removed value: -[
      -  {
      -    "required": [
      -      "event"
      -    ]
      -  },
      -  {
      -    "required": [
      -      "topic"
      -    ]
      -  }
      -]
  2. Changed3 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / anyOf
      Added value: +[
      +  {
      +    "required": [
      +      "event"
      +    ]
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "required": [
      +      "topic"
      +    ]
      +  }
      +]
    • changedInput schema / properties / event / description
      Previous value: -"Single-event mode: Polymarket event slug (e.g. \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\") or full URL."New value: +"Single-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like \"fed-decision-may-2026\" or \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted."
    • changedInput schema / properties / topic / description
      Previous value: -"Cross-event mode: a topic or seed question. Tool searches Polymarket for related markets across separate events and checks monotonicity across them. E.g. \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\"."New value: +"Cross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like \"Fed rate decision\" or \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them."
  3. Added

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations (readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, destructiveHint=false) are consistent with a read-only analysis tool. Description adds rich behavioral details: monotonicity checks, partition filter, semantic anchor, fill check with live CLOB depth. No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Description is verbose but well-structured: front-loaded with purpose, then mode details, then technical filters, response, and fill check. Every sentence adds value, though some redundancy exists (e.g., 'Cross-event mode catches...' repeats earlier point). Still, clarity benefits from thoroughness.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given no output schema and two parameters, the description covers input modes, behavioral details, response structure, and trade execution criteria. References sibling for custom sizing. No gaps identified; agent has enough context to select and invoke correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% but description adds substantial meaning: explains event slug format with examples, topic as seed question, and details on modes. Goes well beyond baseline 3 by providing practical usage context and constraints.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Description clearly states it finds arbitrage opportunities via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. Distinguishes three modes (no args, event, topic) with specific verbs and resources. No ambiguity with sibling tools like polymarket_edges or polymarket_fill_risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidance: no args for trending scan, event for specific market (recommended), topic for cross-event scanning. Also warns when not to trade (realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0) and references polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing. Covers when to use and when not to use.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.5/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The Airtable tools are distinct, but the set is dominated by a large Pipeworx research family with multiple near-identical entries (ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded) and several overlapping prediction-market tools (bet_research, polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage). An agent would frequently struggle to pick the right tool among the many data-lookup and research options, especially given the server is supposedly named Airtable.

Naming Consistency2/5

Naming conventions are mixed: some tools use verb_noun snake_case (airtable_create_record, list_subscriptions, resolve_entity), while others use domain-prefixed names (pipeworx_feedback, polymarket_edges) or bare verbs (remember, forget, recall, subscribe). There is no single predictable pattern across the set.

Tool Count2/5

36 tools is heavy for any single server's scope, and the mismatch is worse because the server is named Airtable yet only 5 of 36 tools relate to Airtable. The rest form an unrelated Pipeworx/Polymarket/memory grab-bag, suggesting poor scoping and no clear purpose for the set as a whole.

Completeness2/5

For the stated Airtable domain, the surface is incomplete: records can be created, fetched, and listed, but there is no update_record or delete_record. For the broader Pipeworx/prediction-market domain the coverage is extensive but unfocused, and given the server's name the Airtable gap is glaring.