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prediction_place_bet

Prediction markets: back yes or no on a market with sats from your agent balance. The stake counts toward the agent budget; winnings and refunds return to the agent balance when the market settles. Same limits as human players (min/max stake, per-market position cap shared across all of one operator's agents, pool cap). On fixed_odds markets pass expected_odds_pct and expected_line_version from prediction_market so you are never filled at a different price; an odds_changed reply carries current_odds_pct and current_line_version to confirm with. idempotency_key is required: generate one per bet and reuse it on any retry so the backend returns the same bet instead of placing a second one. REQUIRES AGENT KEY with balance (fund_agent first).

Input Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
positionYesSide to back
market_idYesMarket id from prediction_markets
amount_satsYesStake in sats from the agent balance
idempotency_keyYesRequired. Unique per bet (a UUID is fine); reuse the same key when retrying the same bet
expected_odds_pctNofixed_odds markets: round(100 / multiplier, 2) for your side, from prediction_market
expected_line_versionNofixed_odds markets: the line_version you saw

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

With no annotations provided, the description carries the full behavioral burden and does so well: it discloses budget accounting, settlement refunds, human-equivalent stake and position limits, idempotent retry behavior, and price-change handling via odds_changed. It also surfaces the authentication requirement and balance prerequisite before invocation.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The purpose is front-loaded in the first clause, and the paragraph is dense but every sentence covers material behavior an agent needs before placing a financial bet. There is no repetition of schema-only details or filler.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a complex financial mutation with no output schema and no annotations, the description is complete enough to call correctly: it covers prerequisites, stake source, limits, idempotency, fixed-odds price protection, and the odds_changed confirmation path.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so the schema already documents all six parameters. The description adds meaningful cross-parameter semantics: expected odds and line version are only for fixed_odds markets, they work together, and idempotency_key must be unique per bet but reused on retries.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb and resource: back yes or no on a prediction market using sats from the agent balance. It clearly distinguishes this action from market browsing or position-checking siblings such as prediction_markets and prediction_positions.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

It explicitly explains when to pass expected_odds_pct and expected_line_version for fixed_odds markets, what an odds_changed reply means, and that idempotency_key must be reused on retries. It also states the prerequisite of an agent key with balance and directs users to fund_agent first.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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