Polymarket ↔ Hyperliquid divergence
hl_polymarket_divergence[PREMIUM — needs an API key: call hl_request_free_key first for a free key, or pay per call via x402] Compare Polymarket price-threshold odds for a coin (e.g. 'BTC above $100k by date') against the probability implied by Hyperliquid's price + realized volatility. Surfaces cross-market mispricings ranked by edge, checks the market's own price ladder for logically impossible orderings (P(further threshold) > P(nearer)), collapses duplicate contract listings, and reports each estimate's sensitivity to the volatility input. Rows where a diffusion model is out of its depth (extreme tails the market prices but a no-jump model cannot) are flagged, not asserted. Optionally use perp funding as drift. Estimate under lognormal dynamics. Analytics only, not investment advice.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| coin | Yes | Perp coin symbol, e.g. 'BTC'. | |
| limit | No | ||
| minEdge | No | Min |Polymarket − HL| probability gap to report. | |
| volInterval | No | 1d | |
| volWindowDays | No | Lookback for realized volatility. | |
| useFundingDrift | No | Use annualized funding as the drift term. |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| coin | Yes | ||
| note | Yes | ||
| spot | Yes | ||
| volBand | Yes | ||
| driftUsed | Yes | ||
| disclaimer | Yes | ||
| divergences | Yes | ||
| annualizedVol | Yes | ||
| marketsScanned | Yes | ||
| ladderViolations | Yes | ||
| skippedImplausible | Yes | ||
| duplicatesCollapsed | Yes |