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Signal Historical Outcomes

get_signal_historical_outcomes

Historical simulation suite testing quantitative factor performance against political disclosures and defense awards. Returns insufficient_sample below the honesty N gate.

Tool call template

Replace each placeholder with a value matching the input schema. Only required parameters are included; add optional parameters as needed.

{
  "id": 1,
  "jsonrpc": "2.0",
  "method": "tools/call",
  "params": {
    "arguments": {
      "pattern_key": "<pattern_key>"
    },
    "name": "get_signal_historical_outcomes"
  }
}

Input Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
pattern_keyYese.g. congress_buy, gov_contract_ge3pct_mcap

Output Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
noticeNoFree-tier upgrade notice; only when results are masked/delayed.
resultsYesTool result payload (read-only evidence). Shape varies by tool; scoring weights are never exposed.
history_limitNoPresent when the license limits history depth: earliest_allowed date, history_days and how many older items were removed.
deprecated_fieldsNoPresent only while a renamed key is still returned next to its replacement: field (old key), replacement (new key, same value), removal (ISO date after which the old key is gone).

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedOutput schema / properties / deprecated_fields
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Present only while a renamed key is still returned next to its replacement: field (old key), replacement (new key, same value), removal (ISO date after which the old key is gone).",
      +  "items": {
      +    "additionalProperties": true,
      +    "type": "object"
      +  },
      +  "type": "array"
      +}
  2. First observed

TDQS

C2.8/5.0
Behavior3/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description adds real behavioral context beyond the annotations: it discloses the statistical gate behavior and the literal sentinel value (insufficient_sample) an agent must handle. It does not explain why readOnlyHint=false on what reads like a read simulation, nor does it mention cost, latency, or whether simulations are persisted.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Two sentences, no filler, and the return-status caveat is placed early. However, dense unexplained jargon ('simulation suite', 'honesty N gate') costs comprehension, so the brevity is partly achieved by leaving terms undefined.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness3/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

An output schema exists, so return structure need not be described, and the single required param is fully documented in the schema. What is missing is how to obtain or enumerate valid pattern keys and what population the historical sample draws from, which matters for interpreting the N-gate result.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% and the single pattern_key parameter already carries examples (congress_buy, gov_contract_ge3pct_mcap) in the schema. The description adds no meaning about what constitutes a valid pattern key, whether arbitrary keys are accepted, or how keys are discovered; baseline 3 applies.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose3/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description names a specific resource (historical simulation of quantitative factor performance against political disclosures and defense awards) and the returned status, but it never states plainly that it returns backtested outcome statistics for a given signal pattern. Against siblings like get_track_record, get_top_signals, and explain_score, an agent has to infer the distinction from jargon rather than a stated scope.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines2/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

There is no when-to-use guidance, no prerequisites, and no named alternative. The closest thing is the passive note that insufficient_sample is returned below the N gate, which tells the agent about an outcome but not when to call this versus get_track_record or get_top_signals.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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