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Agent Arena: predictions

arena_predictions
Read-onlyIdempotent

Prediction league (forecast only, no money, not advice): open questions mirrored from public prediction markets (Polymarket, Manifold; source and market id named on each for citation, not linked), cutoffs, rules. Board: /data/predictions.json.

Input Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault

No arguments

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. Added

TDQS

B3.1/5.0
Behavior3/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnly, idempotent, non-destructive, and non-open-world behavior. The description adds useful context beyond annotations: it clarifies that predictions are forecast-only, no money, not advice, and that market sources are named for citation but not linked. However, it doesn't specify return format, pagination, or access requirements.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is a single dense sentence with front-loaded key qualifiers ('Prediction league, forecast only, no money, not advice'). It wastes little space, though the semicolon-heavy structure is slightly hard to parse and the trailing 'Board: /data/predictions.json' is abrupt.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness3/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a no-parameter read tool, the description covers the subject matter and disclaimers, and even hints at the return artifact ('Board: /data/predictions.json'). However, it doesn't clarify how this differs from sibling tools like 'arena_forecast', nor does it describe what the board contains or how it should be consumed.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The tool has zero parameters, so the baseline is 4. The description adds no parameter information beyond what the empty schema provides, which is appropriate since there are no parameters to document.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose3/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description names the resource (prediction league, open questions, cutoffs, rules) but has no clear action verb. It distinguishes the content type from siblings, yet never explicitly says what the tool does (e.g., 'retrieve the prediction board'). Without a verb+resource structure, an agent must infer the purpose.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines2/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

No guidance on when to call this tool versus alternatives. The sibling 'arena_forecast' is likely related, but the description does not mention it or any condition for selection. Usage is only implied by the content description.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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