Market Implied Odds
workflow.run_market_implied_oddsReads Kalshi's full live BTC or ETH year-end price ladder (a set of mutually-exclusive prediction markets covering the whole price range) and reports what the market itself implies: the median (50th-percentile) price bucket, the single most-likely (mode) bucket, and the probability of ending the year at or above any real bucket boundary. Deliberately does not compute an expected value or interpolate inside a bucket: the top/bottom buckets are open-ended, so any point estimate there would need an invented assumption; every number this tool returns traces back to one live, sourced price. Edge cases: coin BTC or ETH (default BTC); thresholdUsd above zero, optional, and it snaps to the nearest real bucket boundary at or below it. The ladder is read live from Kalshi only; when it is unavailable or incomplete the call returns available false with the reason. Not covered: an expected value or a price inside a bucket (the end buckets are open-ended), other venues, other horizons than the year-end ladder, and fees. Use when user asks "what does the market think BTC will be worth by year end?" or "what are the odds ETH ends the year above $X?". Returns: buckets[] (label, floor, cap, probabilityPct), medianBucketLabel, modeBucketLabel, vigPct, probabilityAtOrAbovePct + snappedThresholdUsd (only when thresholdUsd is supplied). If available is false, do not use any result field (computed figures and any verdict are null or empty), so read available first.
Tool call template
This tool declares no required parameters. Add optional parameters from the input schema as needed.
{
"id": 1,
"jsonrpc": "2.0",
"method": "tools/call",
"params": {
"arguments": {},
"name": "workflow.run_market_implied_odds"
}
}Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| coin | No | Which coin's year-end ladder to read. Default BTC. | |
| thresholdUsd | No | Optional price threshold: returns the probability of ending the year at or above the nearest real bucket boundary at or below this value. |