Market Implied Odds
workflow.run_market_implied_oddsReads Kalshi's full live BTC or ETH year-end price ladder (a set of mutually-exclusive prediction markets covering the whole price range) and reports what the market itself implies: the median (50th-percentile) price bucket, the single most-likely (mode) bucket, and the probability of ending the year at or above any real bucket boundary. Deliberately does not compute an expected value or interpolate inside a bucket: the top/bottom buckets are open-ended, so any point estimate there would need an invented assumption; every number this tool returns traces back to one live, sourced price. Use when user asks "what does the market think BTC will be worth by year end?" or "what are the odds ETH ends the year above $X?". Returns: buckets[] (label, floor, cap, probabilityPct), medianBucketLabel, modeBucketLabel, vigPct, probabilityAtOrAbovePct + snappedThresholdUsd (only when thresholdUsd is supplied).
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| coin | No | Which coin's year-end ladder to read. Default BTC. | |
| thresholdUsd | No | Optional price threshold: returns the probability of ending the year at or above the nearest real bucket boundary at or below this value. |