Kelly Growth-Security Frontier
workflow.run_kelly_frontierKelly growth-security frontier (MacLean, Ziemba & Blazenko 1992): for a strategy compounding at a fraction lambda of full Kelly, the probability wealth ever falls to a fraction alpha of its starting value is P = alpha^(2/lambda-1). Provide either lambda_fraction (to compute that probability) or max_probability (to solve for the largest lambda that keeps the ruin probability at or below it). Edge cases: alpha strictly between 0 and 1; give exactly one of lambda_fraction (above 0) or max_probability (strictly between 0 and 1), not both and not neither. Not covered: the edge of a real strategy and its estimation error, transaction costs, discrete bets, and the probability of falling to alpha at a fixed date (the probability is of ever falling to it). Use when user asks "if I bet half-Kelly, what's my chance of ever losing half my bankroll?" or "what fraction of Kelly keeps my chance of a 50% drawdown under 5%?". Valid lambda range is (0, 2]; beyond 2 the probability is certain (1), not the raw formula value. Returns: probability, lambda_fraction (echoed or solved).
Tool call template
Replace each placeholder with a value matching the input schema. Only required parameters are included; add optional parameters as needed.
{
"id": 1,
"jsonrpc": "2.0",
"method": "tools/call",
"params": {
"arguments": {
"alpha": "<alpha>"
},
"name": "workflow.run_kelly_frontier"
}
}Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| alpha | Yes | Fraction of starting capital, 0-1 exclusive (e.g. 0.5 = "ever falls to half my starting bankroll") | |
| lambda_fraction | No | Fraction of full Kelly being bet (1 = full Kelly, 0.5 = half Kelly). Provide this OR max_probability, not both. | |
| max_probability | No | Target ceiling on the ruin probability, 0-1 exclusive. Provide this to solve for the safe lambda_fraction instead of supplying it directly. |