GARCH Volatility
workflow.run_garchGARCH(1,1) volatility model, fit by maximum likelihood on a return series: estimates omega/alpha/beta (the variance-persistence parameters) and forecasts next-period volatility. Edge cases: at least 50 returns; a flat series is an error; non-finite values are refused. Output is per period of the input (no annualization). Not covered: asymmetric models (GJR, EGARCH), fat-tailed errors (the fit is Gaussian maximum likelihood), multi-step forecasts, and a guarantee that the optimizer finds the global maximum. Use when user asks "what's my GARCH volatility forecast?" or "how persistent is volatility in this return series?". This is a backward-looking statistical fit, not a market prediction guarantee. Returns: mu, omega, alpha, beta, persistence (alpha+beta), unconditional_vol, forecast_vol, loglikelihood.
Tool call template
Replace each placeholder with a value matching the input schema. Only required parameters are included; add optional parameters as needed.
{
"id": 1,
"jsonrpc": "2.0",
"method": "tools/call",
"params": {
"arguments": {
"returns": "<returns>"
},
"name": "workflow.run_garch"
}
}Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| returns | Yes | Return series, one value per period, at least 50 values (GARCH needs real sample depth to identify persistence) |