Get Outcome Fair Value
get_outcome_fair_valueOptions/vol-implied fair value for a HIP-4 binary/range/touch PRICE market (" above $X at time T?"). Returns the risk-neutral probability the market resolves YES, and — if you pass market_yes_price — the signed edge in probability points and a YES cheap/rich/fair verdict. BTC/ETH price off the live Deribit IV smile (interpolated to strike + DTE); ANY other asset falls back to Hyperliquid 30d realized vol. iv_source labels which was used (smile/term_interp/skew_adj/atm/realized_vol). The touch case uses the correct drifted first-passage formula. Approximations are listed in caveats.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| asset | Yes | Underlying ticker, e.g. "BTC", "ETH", "SOL", "HYPE". BTC/ETH use the Deribit IV smile; others use Hyperliquid realized vol. | |
| strike | Yes | The market's strike / threshold price, e.g. 70000. | |
| comparator | Yes | Market shape: above/below a strike, inside a range [strike, strike_high], or touches the strike before expiry. | |
| expiry_iso | Yes | Market resolution time as an ISO 8601 string, e.g. "2026-08-21T06:00:00Z". | |
| strike_high | No | Upper bound for range markets (must be > strike). Ignored otherwise. | |
| market_yes_price | No | Current on-chain YES price (0..1) to compute the edge against fair value. |