Evaluate a track record
regimen_evaluate_track_recordAnswer whether a trading strategy’s measured performance is distinguishable from luck. Returns the Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio (the probability the true Sharpe beats a benchmark, corrected for sample length, skew and fat tails), a bootstrap confidence interval, and the Minimum Track Record Length — how long the record would have to run before the claim could be made at all. Use this whenever someone quotes a Sharpe ratio, a win rate or a return and you need to know whether the number means anything. It will frequently say the evidence is too thin; that is the intended answer, not a failure.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| detail | No | concise returns the verdict, the headline statistics and the reasoning — enough to answer a user. full adds every bucket, every dropped point and the complete provenance list, and is much larger. | concise |
| selector | Yes | Which track record to analyse. | |
| confidence | No | ||
| trialSharpes | No | Per-period Sharpe ratios of other configurations tried for this strategy. Supplying them enables the Deflated Sharpe Ratio, which discounts the headline for how many variants were tested before this one was reported. | |
| benchmarkSharpe | No | Per-period Sharpe the record must beat. 0 asks only whether there is any edge at all. |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| full | Yes | The complete report when detail is "full", otherwise null. | |
| label | Yes | ||
| notes | Yes | ||
| verdict | Yes | One of insufficient_evidence, indistinguishable_from_luck, weak, supported, strong. | |
| headline | Yes | ||
| sourceId | Yes | ||
| reasoning | Yes | ||
| usableReturns | Yes | ||
| deflatedSharpe | Yes | ||
| sharpePerPeriod | Yes | ||
| sharpeAnnualised | Yes | ||
| probabilisticSharpe | Yes | ||
| divergencesFromReported | Yes | ||
| minimumTrackRecordLength | Yes | ||
| sharpeConfidenceInterval | Yes | ||
| periodsShortOfSignificance | Yes |