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f1_simulate_championship

Read-onlyIdempotent

Estimate each driver's F1 drivers' title probability for the rest of a season.

Monte Carlo over the remaining races and sprints (Plackett-Luce finishing orders weighted by each driver's season points rate), plus exact elimination maths: a driver who cannot catch the leader's current points even by winning every remaining race and sprint has title_prob 0.0. This is not a cricket or football tool.

Args: year: Championship season (2018-2030, default 2026). iterations: Monte Carlo iterations, clamped to 1000-20000 (default 10000). seed: Optional RNG seed for reproducible probabilities.

Returns: data.drivers: [{code, points_now, title_prob, expected_points, eliminated, max_possible}] sorted by title_prob. data.max_remaining_points: most points one driver can still score. data.rounds_remaining: races left after the last completed round. meta.estimated: true. meta.model: "plackett-luce-points-rate". meta.is_stale: true if standings or schedule came from stale cache.

Input Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
seedNoOptional RNG seed for reproducible probabilities.
yearNoChampionship season (2018-2030, default 2026).
iterationsNoMonte Carlo iterations, clamped to 1000-20000 (default 10000).

Output Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
dataNo
metaNo
errorNo

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. Added

TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already cover the safety profile (readOnly, idempotent, openWorld), and the description goes well beyond them: it names the simulation method (Plackett-Luce weighted Monte Carlo), discloses the exact-elimination rule producing title_prob 0.0, documents iteration clamping, and flags meta.is_stale for cached standings/schedule. That is the kind of caveat an agent needs to interpret results correctly.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Purpose and caveats are front-loaded and the argument list is compact. The Returns block duplicates what the output schema already declares, which is mild waste, though the model/staleness meta notes do earn their place.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With annotations, a full output schema, and 100% parameter coverage, the description supplies everything essential: scope, method, edge cases, and cache caveats. The only soft gaps are the odd sport disambiguation line and no note on latency or what to do when is_stale is true.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, and the Args block largely restates the schema text (year range, iteration clamp, seed purpose) rather than adding new meaning. Baseline 3 is appropriate since the schema already carries the semantics.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

States a specific verb and resource ('Estimate each driver's F1 drivers' title probability for the rest of a season') and immediately names the model behind it. The explicit 'This is not a cricket or football tool' line, plus the F1-season framing, separates it from both the cross-sport siblings and the F1 data-only tools.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines3/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Usage is implied by 'for the rest of a season', and elimination maths shows one case where output is degenerate. But there is no explicit when-to-use vs. f1_get_standings (current table) or guidance on whether to call this before/after f1_get_race_results; the agent has to infer the fit.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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