f1_simulate_championship
Estimate each driver's F1 drivers' title probability for the rest of a season.
Monte Carlo over the remaining races and sprints (Plackett-Luce finishing orders weighted by each driver's season points rate), plus exact elimination maths: a driver who cannot catch the leader's current points even by winning every remaining race and sprint has title_prob 0.0. This is not a cricket or football tool.
Args: year: Championship season (2018-2030, default 2026). iterations: Monte Carlo iterations, clamped to 1000-20000 (default 10000). seed: Optional RNG seed for reproducible probabilities.
Returns: data.drivers: [{code, points_now, title_prob, expected_points, eliminated, max_possible}] sorted by title_prob. data.max_remaining_points: most points one driver can still score. data.rounds_remaining: races left after the last completed round. meta.estimated: true. meta.model: "plackett-luce-points-rate". meta.is_stale: true if standings or schedule came from stale cache.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| seed | No | Optional RNG seed for reproducible probabilities. | |
| year | No | Championship season (2018-2030, default 2026). | |
| iterations | No | Monte Carlo iterations, clamped to 1000-20000 (default 10000). |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| data | No | ||
| meta | No | ||
| error | No |