Summarize worst, median and best outcomes
summarize_outcome_scenariosRuns a model once and reports one outcome's worst, median and best values. By default, worst is the lowest value in any trial, median is the middle value, and best is the highest value. Worst always means lowest, so for a cost the worst case is the cheapest one. You can ask for other percentiles instead, such as the 10th and 90th. Use this when you want a short worst, typical and best case story rather than the full distribution. For the full distribution, use run_monte_carlo_simulation. To find which input matters most, use rank_inputs_by_impact. It returns each scenario's outcome value and every input's own value at the same percentile. Those input values are an estimate, not the exact inputs of that trial. It also returns a run_id; a long run comes back as status running, and get_simulation_results gives you progress and then the result. Cost: without an account, 1 of your 3 free runs per UTC day (models up to 1,000 trials and 20 nodes); with an account, 1 credit for a small run or 5 for a large one, currently $0.50 per credit. A model that is invalid or over the no-account limits is rejected before running and costs nothing. If it fails mid-run: anonymous, the free run is used; account, not charged.
Tool call template
Replace each placeholder with a value matching the input schema. Only required parameters are included; add optional parameters as needed.
{
"id": 1,
"jsonrpc": "2.0",
"method": "tools/call",
"params": {
"arguments": {
"graph": "<graph>"
},
"name": "summarize_outcome_scenarios"
}
}Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| seed | No | Optional whole number that fixes the random draws, so repeating the call gives the same result. Exact repeats are guaranteed only for small runs, where trials × nodes × time periods is at most 100,000. | |
| graph | Yes | The model: root_nodes (uncertain inputs), calc_nodes (formulas), edges (links; formulas refer to them like {e1}) and run_params (trials and time periods). Same format as run_monte_carlo_simulation's graph, which documents formulas, periods, distributions and financial metrics in full. | |
| percentiles | No | A list of percentiles of the outcome to report. Each is a fraction from 0 to 1: 0.1 is the 10th percentile, the value 10% of trials fall below. Default [0, 0.5, 1]: 0 is the lowest trial (labelled worst), 0.5 the median, and 1 the highest trial (labelled best). Other values are labelled like p10 (10th percentile). Values between 0 and 1 are estimated from a histogram. The labels assume higher is better: for a cost or a duration, 'worst' is the lowest (cheapest or fastest) trial, so ask for percentiles such as 0.1 and 0.9 and read them as low and high. | |
| time_period | No | Index of the time period to measure, counting from 0: with 12 monthly periods, 11 is month 12. Defaults to the last period. This measures the node's value in that one period, not a total. For a cumulative figure such as year-one profit, add a running-total calc node with formula {e1} + {e2}, where e1 brings in the per-period value and e2 is an edge from the running-total node to itself with delay 1. Then target that node at index 11. This delayed self-edge is allowed; only loops with no delay are errors. In run_monte_carlo_simulation, use a cumsum metric instead. | |
| target_node_id | No | The id of the outcome node to measure. Defaults to the last calc node in the model, which is usually the final outcome. |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| run_id | No | ||
| status | No | completed | |
| trials | Yes | Number of trials in the run. | |
| billing | No | Who you are and what this call cost: principal, auth source, credits debited and balance, or the anonymous allowance left today. | |
| progress | No | Present while the run is queued or running. | |
| next_step | No | What to do next while the run is still going. | |
| scenarios | No | One entry per percentile, lowest first. | |
| time_period | Yes | The period measured (index counted from 0). | |
| runs_executed | Yes | Always 1; one run is reused for every scenario. | |
| target_node_id | Yes | The outcome node measured. | |
| credits_debited | No | Credits charged (0 without an account). | |
| estimated_seconds | No | Rough total run time, in seconds. |