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Look up one market’s estimated fair price

fair-value
Read-onlyIdempotent

Name one prediction market or paste its Kalshi or Polymarket ticker or URL. Plain game names resolve to outcome choices when several contracts match. Returns one existing thesis-model fair-price estimate, its original comparison and timestamps, plus matched source-labelled quotes from Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig when available. Free anonymous access. No wallet or payment is required. POST /api/fair-value. Human example: https://weverlabs.com/fair-value/.

Input Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
marketYes

Output Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault

No arguments

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. Changed4 schema fields changed
    • removedOutput schema / additionalProperties
      Removed value: -false
    • addedOutput schema / anyOf
      Added value: +[
      +  {
      +    "additionalProperties": false,
      +    "properties": {
      +      "compared_against": {
      +        "additionalProperties": false,
      +        "properties": {
      +          "basis": {
      +            "const": "engine_implied_probability"
      +          },
      +          "observed_at": {
      +            "pattern": "^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}T\\d{2}:\\d{2}:\\d{2}\\.\\d{3}Z$",
      +            "type": "string"
      +          },
      +          "price": {
      +            "maximum": 1,
      +            "minimum": 0,
      +            "type": "number"
      +          },
      +          "source": {
      +            "maxLength": 1000,
      +            "minLength": 1,
      +            "pattern": "\\S",
      +            "type": "string"
      +          }
      +        },
      +        "required": [
      +          "price",
      +          "basis",
      +          "observed_at",
      +          "source"
      +        ],
      +        "type": "object"
      +      },
      +      "estimate_basis": {
      +        "const": "engine_estimated_yes_probability"
      +      },
      +      "estimated_at": {
      +        "pattern": "^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}T\\d{2}:\\d{2}:\\d{2}\\.\\d{3}Z$",
      +        "type": "string"
      +      },
      +      "fair_price": {
      +        "maximum": 1,
      +        "minimum": 0,
      +        "type": "number"
      +      },
      +      "label": {
      +        "const": "estimate"
      +      },
      +      "market": {
      +        "additionalProperties": false,
      +        "properties": {
      +          "outcome": {
      +            "maxLength": 200,
      +            "minLength": 1,
      +            "pattern": "\\S",
      +            "type": "string"
      +          },
      +          "ticker": {
      +            "maxLength": 200,
      +            "minLength": 1,
      +            "pattern": "\\S",
      +            "type": "string"
      +          },
      +          "title": {
      +            "maxLength": 500,
      +            "minLength": 1,
      +            "pattern": "\\S",
      +            "type": "string"
      +          },
      +          "url": {
      +            "maxLength": 2000,
      +            "minLength": 9,
      +            "pattern": "^https://",
      +            "type": "string"
      +          },
      +          "venue": {
      +            "enum": [
      +              "Kalshi",
      +              "Polymarket"
      +            ]
      +          }
      +        },
      +        "required": [
      +          "venue",
      +          "ticker",
      +          "title",
      +          "url",
      +          "outcome"
      +        ],
      +        "type": "object"
      +      },
      +      "market_quotes": {
      +        "items": {
      +          "additionalProperties": false,
      +          "allOf": [
      +            {
      +              "else": {
      +                "properties": {
      +                  "basis": {
      +                    "enum": [
      +                      "midpoint",
      +                      "last_trade",
      +                      "listed_price"
      +                    ]
      +                  },
      +                  "native_payout_usd": {
      +                    "const": 1
      +                  },
      +                  "observation_basis": {
      +                    "const": "received_at"
      +                  }
      +                }
      +              },
      +              "if": {
      +                "properties": {
      +                  "source": {
      +                    "const": "Novig"
      +                  }
      +                }
      +              },
      +              "then": {
      +                "properties": {
      +                  "basis": {
      +                    "const": "best_bid"
      +                  },
      +                  "native_payout_usd": {
      +                    "const": 0.01
      +                  },
      +                  "observation_basis": {
      +                    "const": "http_date"
      +                  }
      +                },
      +                "required": [
      +                  "event_id",
      +                  "market_id",
      +                  "outcome_id"
      +                ]
      +              }
      +            }
      +          ],
      +          "properties": {
      +            "basis": {
      +              "enum": [
      +                "best_bid",
      +                "midpoint",
      +                "last_trade",
      +                "listed_price"
      +              ]
      +            },
      +            "event_id": {
      +              "maxLength": 200,
      +              "minLength": 1,
      +              "pattern": "\\S",
      +              "type": "string"
      +            },
      +            "market_id": {
      +              "maxLength": 200,
      +              "minLength": 1,
      +              "pattern": "\\S",
      +              "type": "string"
      +            },
      +            "native_payout_usd": {
      +              "enum": [
      +                0.01,
      +                1
      +              ]
      +            },
      +            "observation_basis": {
      +              "enum": [
      +                "source_timestamp",
      +                "http_date",
      +                "received_at"
      +              ]
      +            },
      +            "observed_at": {
      +              "pattern": "^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}T\\d{2}:\\d{2}:\\d{2}\\.\\d{3}Z$",
      +              "type": "string"
      +            },
      +            "outcome": {
      +              "maxLength": 200,
      +              "minLength": 1,
      +              "pattern": "\\S",
      +              "type": "string"
      +            },
      +            "outcome_id": {
      +              "maxLength": 200,
      +              "minLength": 1,
      +              "pattern": "\\S",
      +              "type": "string"
      +            },
      +            "payout_usd": {
      +              "const": 1
      +            },
      +            "price": {
      +              "maximum": 1,
      +              "minimum": 0,
      +              "type": "number"
      +            },
      +            "received_at": {
      +              "pattern": "^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}T\\d{2}:\\d{2}:\\d{2}\\.\\d{3}Z$",
      +              "type": "string"
      +            },
      +            "source": {
      +              "enum": [
      +                "Kalshi",
      +                "Polymarket",
      +                "Novig"
      +              ]
      +            }
      +          },
      +          "required": [
      +            "source",
      +            "price",
      +            "basis",
      +            "outcome",
      +            "observed_at",
      +            "received_at",
      +            "observation_basis",
      +            "payout_usd",
      +            "native_payout_usd"
      +          ],
      +          "type": "object"
      +        },
      +        "maxItems": 3,
      +        "type": "array"
      +      },
      +      "model": {
      +        "maxLength": 120,
      +        "minLength": 1,
      +        "pattern": "\\S",
      +        "type": "string"
      +      },
      +      "quote_sources": {
      +        "items": {
      +          "additionalProperties": false,
      +          "properties": {
      +            "reason": {
      +              "maxLength": 100,
      +              "minLength": 1,
      +              "pattern": "\\S",
      +              "type": "string"
      +            },
      +            "source": {
      +              "enum": [
      +                "Kalshi",
      +                "Polymarket",
      +                "Novig"
      +              ]
      +            },
      +            "status": {
      +              "enum": [
      +                "available",
      +                "unavailable"
      +              ]
      +            }
      +          },
      +          "required": [
      +            "source",
      +            "status"
      +          ],
      +          "type": "object"
      +        },
      +        "maxItems": 3,
      +        "type": "array"
      +      },
      +      "retrieved_at": {
      +        "pattern": "^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}T\\d{2}:\\d{2}:\\d{2}\\.\\d{3}Z$",
      +        "type": "string"
      +      }
      +    },
      +    "required": [
      +      "market",
      +      "fair_price",
      +      "label",
      +      "estimate_basis",
      +      "compared_against",
      +      "estimated_at",
      +      "retrieved_at",
      +      "model"
      +    ],
      +    "type": "object"
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "additionalProperties": false,
      +    "properties": {
      +      "candidates": {
      +        "items": {
      +          "additionalProperties": false,
      +          "properties": {
      +            "game_date": {
      +              "anyOf": [
      +                {
      +                  "pattern": "^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}$",
      +                  "type": "string"
      +                },
      +                {
      +                  "type": "null"
      +                }
      +              ]
      +            },
      +            "market": {
      +              "additionalProperties": false,
      +              "properties": {
      +                "outcome": {
      +                  "maxLength": 200,
      +                  "minLength": 1,
      +                  "pattern": "\\S",
      +                  "type": "string"
      +                },
      +                "ticker": {
      +                  "maxLength": 200,
      +                  "minLength": 1,
      +                  "pattern": "\\S",
      +                  "type": "string"
      +                },
      +                "title": {
      +                  "maxLength": 500,
      +                  "minLength": 1,
      +                  "pattern": "\\S",
      +                  "type": "string"
      +                },
      +                "url": {
      +                  "maxLength": 2000,
      +                  "minLength": 9,
      +                  "pattern": "^https://",
      +                  "type": "string"
      +                },
      +                "venue": {
      +                  "enum": [
      +                    "Kalshi",
      +                    "Polymarket"
      +                  ]
      +                }
      +              },
      +              "required": [
      +                "venue",
      +                "ticker",
      +                "title",
      +                "url",
      +                "outcome"
      +              ],
      +              "type": "object"
      +            },
      +            "market_type": {
      +              "maxLength": 80,
      +              "minLength": 1,
      +              "pattern": "\\S",
      +              "type": "string"
      +            },
      +            "selection": {
      +              "maxLength": 300,
      +              "minLength": 3,
      +              "pattern": "^(?:kalshi|polymarket):[A-Za-z0-9._-]+$",
      +              "type": "string"
      +            },
      +            "starts_at": {
      +              "anyOf": [
      +                {
      +                  "pattern": "^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}T\\d{2}:\\d{2}:\\d{2}\\.\\d{3}Z$",
      +                  "type": "string"
      +                },
      +                {
      +                  "type": "null"
      +                }
      +              ]
      +            }
      +          },
      +          "required": [
      +            "market",
      +            "starts_at",
      +            "game_date",
      +            "market_type",
      +            "selection"
      +          ],
      +          "type": "object"
      +        },
      +        "maxItems": 6,
      +        "minItems": 1,
      +        "type": "array"
      +      },
      +      "query": {
      +        "maxLength": 300,
      +        "minLength": 1,
      +        "pattern": "\\S",
      +        "type": "string"
      +      },
      +      "retrieved_at": {
      +        "pattern": "^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}T\\d{2}:\\d{2}:\\d{2}\\.\\d{3}Z$",
      +        "type": "string"
      +      },
      +      "status": {
      +        "const": "needs_match"
      +      }
      +    },
      +    "required": [
      +      "status",
      +      "query",
      +      "retrieved_at",
      +      "candidates"
      +    ],
      +    "type": "object"
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "additionalProperties": false,
      +    "properties": {
      +      "query": {
      +        "maxLength": 300,
      +        "minLength": 1,
      +        "pattern": "\\S",
      +        "type": "string"
      +      },
      +      "retrieved_at": {
      +        "pattern": "^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}T\\d{2}:\\d{2}:\\d{2}\\.\\d{3}Z$",
      +        "type": "string"
      +      },
      +      "status": {
      +        "const": "no_match"
      +      },
      +      "summary": {
      +        "maxLength": 300,
      +        "minLength": 1,
      +        "pattern": "\\S",
      +        "type": "string"
      +      }
      +    },
      +    "required": [
      +      "status",
      +      "query",
      +      "summary",
      +      "retrieved_at"
      +    ],
      +    "type": "object"
      +  }
      +]
    • removedOutput schema / properties
      Removed value: -{
      -  "compared_against": {
      -    "additionalProperties": false,
      -    "properties": {
      -      "basis": {
      -        "const": "engine_implied_probability"
      -      },
      -      "observed_at": {
      -        "pattern": "^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}T\\d{2}:\\d{2}:\\d{2}\\.\\d{3}Z$",
      -        "type": "string"
      -      },
      -      "price": {
      -        "maximum": 1,
      -        "minimum": 0,
      -        "type": "number"
      -      },
      -      "source": {
      -        "maxLength": 1000,
      -        "minLength": 1,
      -        "pattern": "\\S",
      -        "type": "string"
      -      }
      -    },
      -    "required": [
      -      "price",
      -      "basis",
      -      "observed_at",
      -      "source"
      -    ],
      -    "type": "object"
      -  },
      -  "estimate_basis": {
      -    "const": "engine_estimated_yes_probability"
      -  },
      -  "estimated_at": {
      -    "pattern": "^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}T\\d{2}:\\d{2}:\\d{2}\\.\\d{3}Z$",
      -    "type": "string"
      -  },
      -  "fair_price": {
      -    "maximum": 1,
      -    "minimum": 0,
      -    "type": "number"
      -  },
      -  "label": {
      -    "const": "estimate"
      -  },
      -  "market": {
      -    "additionalProperties": false,
      -    "properties": {
      -      "outcome": {
      -        "maxLength": 200,
      -        "minLength": 1,
      -        "pattern": "\\S",
      -        "type": "string"
      -      },
      -      "ticker": {
      -        "maxLength": 200,
      -        "minLength": 1,
      -        "pattern": "\\S",
      -        "type": "string"
      -      },
      -      "title": {
      -        "maxLength": 500,
      -        "minLength": 1,
      -        "pattern": "\\S",
      -        "type": "string"
      -      },
      -      "url": {
      -        "maxLength": 2000,
      -        "minLength": 9,
      -        "pattern": "^https://",
      -        "type": "string"
      -      },
      -      "venue": {
      -        "enum": [
      -          "Kalshi",
      -          "Polymarket"
      -        ]
      -      }
      -    },
      -    "required": [
      -      "venue",
      -      "ticker",
      -      "title",
      -      "url",
      -      "outcome"
      -    ],
      -    "type": "object"
      -  },
      -  "model": {
      -    "maxLength": 120,
      -    "minLength": 1,
      -    "pattern": "\\S",
      -    "type": "string"
      -  },
      -  "retrieved_at": {
      -    "pattern": "^\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}T\\d{2}:\\d{2}:\\d{2}\\.\\d{3}Z$",
      -    "type": "string"
      -  }
      -}
    • removedOutput schema / required
      Removed value: -[
      -  "market",
      -  "fair_price",
      -  "label",
      -  "estimate_basis",
      -  "compared_against",
      -  "estimated_at",
      -  "retrieved_at",
      -  "model"
      -]
  2. Added

TDQS

A4.4/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already cover read-only, idempotent and non-destructive semantics, and the description adds real context beyond them: results are pre-existing estimates with original comparison and timestamps, quotes are source-labelled, and access is anonymous with no wallet or payment. It doesn't say what happens when no estimate exists, which keeps it at 4.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Front-loaded with the action and input forms, then returns, then access terms, ending with a human example URL. Each sentence carries distinct information; nothing is redundant padding.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

An output schema exists, so return values needn't be detailed, yet the description still previews the payload shape (estimate, comparison, timestamps, quotes). The only gap is failure/empty-result behavior, which an agent would otherwise have to guess.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 0%, so the description must carry the meaning of the single 'market' parameter — and it does, spelling out that names, Kalshi/Polymarket tickers, and URLs are all valid inputs plus the disambiguation behavior. Length/pattern constraints are left to the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

States a concrete verb and resource ('Look up one market's estimated fair price') and immediately scopes it to prediction markets with Kalshi/Polymarket tickers. That is specific enough to separate it from the payment/work-order siblings that dominate the list.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explains accepted invocation forms (plain game name, ticker, or URL) and what happens when a name matches several contracts ('resolve to outcome choices'). It doesn't name alternatives or say when not to use it, so it stops short of a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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