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Survival odds (answers from the week of 30 Nov 2026)

survival_odds
Read-only

Not answering yet: it answers from the week of 30 Nov 2026. It needs complete weekly snapshots from 5 weeks back; the first answer comes with the 2026-W49 snapshot. Until it answers, a call is refused before any payment. Do x402 listings like mine survive? One signed number: the share of new Bazaar listings in your category, price band and method (GET or POST) still listed four weeks after they first appeared, pooled over recent weeks and each seller counted once, with a 95% range and the seller count. When too few sellers match, filters drop in a fixed order and the answer says which held. Unchanged answers asked with their ETag are a free 304. Price: $0.002 in USDC per call, paid with x402 inside the tool call. Or send a Skyfire pay or kya-pay token in the kyapay-token header (or in this tool's kyapay-token argument), and this tool charges $0.002 to it. Failed calls aren't charged.

Tool call template

This tool declares no required parameters. Add optional parameters from the input schema as needed.

{
  "id": 1,
  "jsonrpc": "2.0",
  "method": "tools/call",
  "params": {
    "arguments": {},
    "name": "survival_odds"
  }
}

Input Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
priceNoA price per call in USD
methodNoOptional: GET or POST
categoryNoThe listing's category
resourceNoOr: your listing's resource URL
kyapay-tokenNoA Skyfire pay or kya-pay token made for Agoranome's service, from a client that can't set the kyapay-token header. Leave it out when paying with x402 or the header.
if_none_matchNoSend the answer's ETag back in If-None-Match (over MCP, the if_none_match argument): while the answer is unchanged it comes back as a free 304 Not Modified.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. Added

TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the readOnlyHint and openWorldHint annotations, the description discloses the payment model ($0.002 USDC per call via x402 inside the call), the alternative Skyfire/kya-pay token path through a header or the kyapay-token argument, that failed calls are not charged, and that pre-availability calls are refused before payment. It also reveals the filter-relaxation order and the seller de-duplication pooling behavior, which the annotations cannot convey.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The availability caveat is correctly front-loaded, since an agent must know a call can be refused before it spends anything. But the prose is dense and partly redundant with the schema, restating the kyapay-token argument/header and the ETag/304 mechanic that the parameter descriptions already carry. The pivot from availability to the actual output is buried mid-paragraph.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description does the work of describing the return: one signed number with a 95% range and a seller count, plus which filters held. Payment, caching and refusal paths are all covered for a six-parameter, metered tool. Only the meaning of 'signed' and the failure shape when no filter combination yields enough sellers are left implicit.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3, but the description adds meaning the schema does not: price is treated as a price band and the answer is segmented by category, price band and method, and resource is 'your listing's resource URL' as an alternative targeting route. It also explains the practical effect of if_none_match (free 304) and of kyapay-token (charge that token).

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description states a precise computation: the share of new Bazaar listings in a given category, price band and method still listed four weeks after they first appeared, pooled over recent weeks with each seller counted once, plus a 95% range and seller count. That is specific enough that an agent knows exactly what it gets back. It never differentiates itself from a sibling tool such as pick_odds, which keeps it short of a 5.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

It frames the question the tool answers ('Do x402 listings like mine survive?') and lays out practical conditions: the answer only exists from the 2026-W49 snapshot, calls are refused before any payment until then, and unchanged answers asked with their ETag are a free 304. It also explains the fallback when too few sellers match. There is no explicit statement of when to prefer a sibling over this tool.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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