Football Database and Results

Draw probability for one match

get_draw_model

Read-onlyIdempotent

[PAID] Every draw reading FDB4 holds for ONE match — use it when someone asks how likely a specific fixture is to end level, rather than which teams are overdue a draw (predict_draws answers that).

Five readings come back side by side, because they are not interchangeable: the Dixon-Coles goals model's own probability with the expected goals behind it; the historical draw rate at this fixture's Elo rating gap; the one-parameter blend of those two the site has published since September 2026; the five-feature logistic model that now sits beside it with a 95% band around it; and the bookmaker's draw price where one is recorded. Also returned: when the logistic model was last fitted, over how many matches, and its coefficients — so an answer can explain itself.

Identify the match by match_id, or by team (id or slug) plus an optional date; with no date you get that team's next fixture. is_forecast says whether the logistic figure is a real forecast (a fixture) or an in-sample description of a match the model was fitted on. Historical pattern, not a betting tip.

Costs 1 point per call (1 point = 1 cent); paginated calls cost 1 point per page.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema

Name	Required	Description
`date`	No	With `team`, the match date as YYYY-MM-DD. Omit for that team's next fixture.
`team`	No	A team id or slug (431, arsenal), from list_teams. Give this or `match_id`.
`match_id`	No	The match id, from search_results or a fixture list. Give this or `team`.

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema

Name	Required	Description	Default
`data`	Yes

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

Changed1 schema field changedSep 30, 2026

changedOutput schema / properties / data / properties / match / properties / score / description

Previous value: -"Final score; both null until the match is played."New value: +"Ninety-minute score; both values null before play or when the exact score is unknown, including played extra-time draws."

Changed1 schema field changedSep 23, 2026

changedOutput schema / (root)

Previous value: -nullNew value: +{
+  "properties": {
+    "data": {
+      "properties": {
+        "blend": {
+          "description": "Goals model and Elo gap combined.",
+          "properties": {
+            "p_draw": {
+              "description": "The blended draw probability, 0 to 1.",
+              "type": [
+                "number",
+                "null"
+              ]
+            }
+          },
+          "type": [
+            "object",
+            "null"
+          ]
+        },
+        "caveats": {
+          "description": "What these numbers do not claim.",
+          "items": {
+            "type": "string"
+          },
+          "type": "array"
+        },
+        "elo": {
+          "description": "Elo ratings and the historical draw rate at this rating gap.",
+          "properties": {
+            "away_rating": {
+              "type": [
+                "number",
+                "null"
+              ]
+            },
+            "gap": {
+              "type": [
+                "number",
+                "null"
+              ]
+            },
+            "historical_draw_rate": {
+              "description": "Draw rate of past matches with a similar rating gap, 0 to 1.",
+              "type": [
+                "number",
+                "null"
+              ]
+            },
+            "home_rating": {
+              "type": [
+                "number",
+                "null"
+              ]
+            }
+          },
+          "type": [
+            "object",
+            "null"
+          ]
+        },
+        "fit": {
+          "description": "When and on what the logistic model was trained.",
+          "type": [
+            "object",
+            "null"
+          ]
+        },
+        "goals_model": {
+          "description": "Dixon-Coles goals model; null when it has no fit for these teams.",
+          "properties": {
+            "p_away": {
+              "description": "Away win probability, 0 to 1.",
+              "type": [
+                "number",
+                "null"
+              ]
+            },
+            "p_draw": {
+              "description": "Draw probability from the goals model, 0 to 1.",
+              "type": [
+                "number",
+                "null"
+              ]
+            },
+            "p_home": {
+              "description": "Home win probability, 0 to 1.",
+              "type": [
+                "number",
+                "null"
+              ]
+            }
+          },
+          "type": [
+            "object",
+            "null"
+          ]
+        },
+        "logistic": {
+          "description": "The calibrated logistic draw model.",
+          "properties": {
+            "confidence_95": {
+              "description": "low/high bounds of the 95% interval.",
+              "type": [
+                "object",
+                "null"
+              ]
+            },
+            "p_draw": {
+              "description": "Calibrated draw probability from the logistic model, 0 to 1.",
+              "type": [
+                "number",
+                "null"
+              ]
+            }
+          },
+          "type": [
+            "object",
+            "null"
+          ]
+        },
+        "market": {
+          "description": "Bookmaker-implied draw probability, when odds are held.",
+          "type": [
+            "object",
+            "null"
+          ]
+        },
+        "match": {
+          "description": "The fixture the readings are for.",
+          "properties": {
+            "away_team": {
+              "description": "A team reference.",
+              "properties": {
+                "id": {
+                  "description": "Team id — the argument every team tool takes.",
+                  "type": "integer"
+                },
+                "name": {
+                  "description": "Short display name.",
+                  "type": "string"
+                },
+                "slug": {
+                  "description": "URL slug; accepted anywhere an id is.",
+                  "type": "string"
+                }
+              },
+              "required": [
+                "id",
+                "slug",
+                "name"
+              ],
+              "type": "object"
+            },
+            "competition": {
+              "type": [
+                "object",
+                "null"
+              ]
+            },
+            "date": {
+              "type": "string"
+            },
+            "home_team": {
+              "description": "A team reference.",
+              "properties": {
+                "id": {
+                  "description": "Team id — the argument every team tool takes.",
+                  "type": "integer"
+                },
+                "name": {
+                  "description": "Short display name.",
+                  "type": "string"
+                },
+                "slug": {
+                  "description": "URL slug; accepted anywhere an id is.",
+                  "type": "string"
+                }
+              },
+              "required": [
+                "id",
+                "slug",
+                "name"
+              ],
+              "type": "object"
+            },
+            "id": {
+              "type": "integer"
+            },
+            "score": {
+              "description": "Final score; both null until the match is played.",
+              "properties": {
+                "away": {
+                  "type": [
+                    "integer",
+                    "null"
+                  ]
+                },
+                "home": {
+                  "type": [
+                    "integer",
+                    "null"
+                  ]
+                }
+              },
+              "type": "object"
+            },
+            "status": {
+              "type": "string"
+            }
+          },
+          "required": [
+            "id",
+            "date"
+          ],
+          "type": "object"
+        }
+      },
+      "required": [
+        "match"
+      ],
+      "type": "object"
+    }
+  },
+  "required": [
+    "data"
+  ],
+  "type": "object"
+}

First observedSep 22, 2026

TDQS

A4.8/5.0

Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations only cover readOnly/idempotent, and the description goes well beyond them: it discloses a per-call cost and per-page pagination charge, the forecast-vs-in-sample caveat via `is_forecast`, model vintage/coefficient return metadata, and an anti-misuse note ('historical pattern, not a betting tip').

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Front-loaded with the [PAID] tag and the single most important routing distinction. It is long, and the five-model enumeration partly restates what the output schema presumably contains, but each clause carries either routing, cost, or interpretation value.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a paid, multi-model read tool this is complete: cost model, input identification paths, output interpretation and caveats are all present, and return-value structure is properly left to the output schema rather than duplicated.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

At 100% schema coverage the schema already documents all three params, so the description only needs to add meaning. It does: it explains that team-without-date yields the next fixture, that team accepts id or slug, and pairs `is_forecast` with the returned logistic figure, clarifying how inputs shape the answer.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

States a specific verb+resource+scope: draw probability readings for ONE match. It explicitly contrasts itself with the sibling `predict_draws` ('which teams are overdue a draw'), so an agent can route correctly without opening either schema.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Gives an explicit when-to-use trigger ('when someone asks how likely a specific fixture is to end level') and names the alternative that answers a different question (`predict_draws`). Identification modes (match_id vs team+date) are also spelled out.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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