Close distribution curve (P(close above each level))
close_curveThe full probability curve of where today's US regular session closes: for any set of price levels, the probability that the session close prints above each one. Distances are measured in units of today's own volatility (ATR of the first 90 minutes) against 1,906 historical sessions grouped by day type. Validated against real-money prediction-market prices: on tail levels (>=0.5% from spot) this curve's log-loss beat Polymarket's own 'SPY closes above $K' ladder quotes in two independent windows; near the money the market was MORE accurate — use this for shape and tails, not direction. Available from 90 minutes into the day session. Same key and quota as price_action_read. Historical frequencies, not forecasts.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| levels | No | Price levels to evaluate. Omit for an automatic grid at ±0.25/0.5/1/1.5/2/3 ATR18 around the anchor. | |
| symbol | Yes | Ticker: NVDA, SPY, ES=F, EURUSD, BTC-USD, 0700.HK. Index names like SPX do not resolve — use SPY or ES=F. Built and measured on ES; other symbols are descriptive. |