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GeoQuant Orb

by dev.pages.geoquant-orb
OverviewDiscussionsAdmin

simulate scenario

simulate_scenario
Read-only

What-if sandbox: give an event (hormuz_closure, bab_el_mandeb_attack, suez_disruption, sanctions, opec_cut, ceasefire, eu_energy_shock, custom) with duration and severity; get real current baseline (risk, Brent, diesel, BTC, ETH, EUR/USD) plus a transparent rule-table estimate of risk change and direction/strength for Brent, diesel, BTC, EUR and qualitative Germany/EU consequences. GeoQuant model estimate, not a forecast. Call this when you want to stress-test a geo/energy event.

Tool call template

Replace each placeholder with a value matching the input schema. Only required parameters are included; add optional parameters as needed.

{
  "id": 1,
  "jsonrpc": "2.0",
  "method": "tools/call",
  "params": {
    "arguments": {
      "event_type": "<event_type>"
    },
    "name": "simulate_scenario"
  }
}

Input Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
textNo
severityNo
event_typeYes
duration_daysNo

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. Changed4 schema fields changed
    • removedInput schema / properties / duration_days / description
      Removed value: -"assumed duration in days (default 7)"
    • removedInput schema / properties / event_type / description
      Removed value: -"event to simulate; use custom + text for anything else"
    • removedInput schema / properties / severity / description
      Removed value: -"1 = mild … 5 = extreme (default 3)"
    • removedInput schema / properties / text / description
      Removed value: -"free-text event description; for event_type=custom it is keyword-matched to a rule"
  2. Changed4 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / properties / duration_days / description
      Added value: +"assumed duration in days (default 7)"
    • addedInput schema / properties / event_type / description
      Added value: +"event to simulate; use custom + text for anything else"
    • addedInput schema / properties / severity / description
      Added value: +"1 = mild … 5 = extreme (default 3)"
    • addedInput schema / properties / text / description
      Added value: +"free-text event description; for event_type=custom it is keyword-matched to a rule"
  3. Changed4 schema fields changed
    • removedInput schema / properties / duration_days / description
      Removed value: -"assumed duration in days (default 7)"
    • removedInput schema / properties / event_type / description
      Removed value: -"event to simulate; use custom + text for anything else"
    • removedInput schema / properties / severity / description
      Removed value: -"1 = mild … 5 = extreme (default 3)"
    • removedInput schema / properties / text / description
      Removed value: -"free-text event description; for event_type=custom it is keyword-matched to a rule"
  4. Changed4 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / properties / duration_days / description
      Added value: +"assumed duration in days (default 7)"
    • addedInput schema / properties / event_type / description
      Added value: +"event to simulate; use custom + text for anything else"
    • addedInput schema / properties / severity / description
      Added value: +"1 = mild … 5 = extreme (default 3)"
    • addedInput schema / properties / text / description
      Added value: +"free-text event description; for event_type=custom it is keyword-matched to a rule"
  5. Added

TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true and openWorldHint=true, so safety is covered. The description adds real value beyond them: it discloses the estimate is a deterministic rule-table heuristic rather than a forecast, that the baseline values are real/current, and that consequences are qualitative for Germany/EU. It doesn't say whether results are cached, deterministic across calls, or how the rule table is bounded.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Front-loaded with the 'What-if sandbox' framing and the call-to-action, with no filler sentences. It is dense to the point of being one long run-on with parenthetical lists, but every clause conveys substance.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description does the work of describing return contents in detail (baseline metrics, risk-change direction/strength, qualitative Germany/EU effects), which is what an agent needs to decide to call it. The main residual gap is severity scale semantics and the role of the optional `text` parameter.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 0%, so the description carries the burden. It enumerates all eight event_type values (redundant with the schema enum) and mentions duration and severity exist, but never explains the 1-5 severity scale's meaning, that duration_days is capped at 365, or what the free-text `text` field is for (presumably custom events). Partial compensation only.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

States a specific verb (simulate a what-if sandbox), the input it takes (a geo/energy event with duration and severity), and precisely what comes back (real baselines for risk, Brent, diesel, BTC, ETH, EUR/USD plus rule-table risk-change estimates). This is clearly distinguishable from every sibling, which are read-only getters of live data plus forecast submission tools.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

"Call this when you want to stress-test a geo/energy event" gives a clear triggering condition, and "GeoQuant model estimate, not a forecast" sets the boundary against forecast-style tools like submit_forecast. It does not name a specific alternative (e.g. get_energy_impact) or state when not to use it, so it falls short of a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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