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Zyberno stock valuation

Monte Carlo distribution of portfolio outcomes

simulate_portfolio_outcomes
Read-onlyIdempotent

Runs a Monte Carlo simulation over a portfolio balance and returns the distribution of possible end values: percentiles, mean, median, and if you give a goal amount, the share of simulated paths that reached it. Returns are drawn from a normal distribution using the expected return and volatility you supply.

Use when the user asks about the range or probability of outcomes rather than a single projected number, for example the odds of reaching a target, or how much volatility widens the spread. Do not use it to value a company (use calculate_dcf_value or get_stock_valuation), and do not use it for retirement withdrawal, tax, or drawdown-sequencing questions, which it does not model.

The simulation propagates the assumptions you give it. Normally distributed returns understate real market tail risk, and the output is a property of the inputs, not a prediction about any real portfolio.

Input Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
yearsYesHow many years to simulate forward.
goal_amountNoOptional target end value. When set, the result reports the share of simulated paths that finished at or above it.
simulationsNoNumber of simulated paths. Defaults to 10000. More paths stabilise the tails and cost more time.
fee_rate_pctNoAnnual fee drag in percent, for example a fund expense ratio. Defaults to 0.
current_balanceYesStarting portfolio value in currency units.
inflation_rate_pctNoAnnual inflation in percent. When set above 0, results are expressed in today's purchasing power. Defaults to 0.
monthly_contributionNoAmount added every month. Defaults to 0.
annual_volatility_pctYesAnnual standard deviation of returns in percent. Pass 15 for 15 percent. Broad equity indices have historically run in the mid teens.
expected_annual_return_pctYesExpected average annual return in percent. Pass 7 for 7 percent.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. Added

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already cover the safety profile (readOnly, idempotent, non-destructive), and the description goes well beyond them: it discloses the normal-distribution assumption, warns that this understates tail risk, and frames the output as a property of inputs rather than a prediction. Those caveats are exactly the context an agent needs to avoid over-claiming results.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Three tight paragraphs in a deliberate order: what it does and returns, when to use it versus alternatives, then modeling caveats. Every sentence carries routing or behavioral information; nothing is filler.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

There is no output schema, yet the description enumerates the return contents (percentiles, mean, median, goal-hit share), the distributional assumption, and the tool's limits. For a 9-parameter simulation tool, an agent has everything needed to call it and to report results honestly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3; the description adds cross-parameter meaning by stating that returns are drawn from a normal distribution using the supplied expected return and volatility, and that goal_amount conditionally produces a hit-rate. It doesn't add detail on simulations, fee drag, or inflation beyond what the schema already documents.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

States a specific verb and resource ('Runs a Monte Carlo simulation over a portfolio balance') and immediately names the output shape: percentiles, mean, median, and goal-hit share. It explicitly distinguishes itself from calculate_dcf_value and get_stock_valuation by naming them as the wrong tool for valuation questions.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Gives an explicit trigger ('when the user asks about the range or probability of outcomes rather than a single projected number') with concrete examples (odds of reaching a target, volatility widening the spread). It also lists explicit exclusions — company valuation with named alternatives, plus retirement withdrawal, tax, and drawdown sequencing — which the tool does not model.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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