Forecast accuracy track record
forecaster_accuracyHow accurate each election forecaster, model, prediction market and pollster has been on resolved races, adjusted for how hard each race was. Use this to answer 'whose election forecast should I trust'. Difficulty adjustment matters: on raw scores whoever rated the safest races wins.
Tool call template
This tool declares no required parameters. Add optional parameters from the input schema as needed.
{
"id": 1,
"jsonrpc": "2.0",
"method": "tools/call",
"params": {
"arguments": {},
"name": "forecaster_accuracy"
}
}Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| limit | No | How many ranked entries to return, best first. Default 10. | |
| office | No | Restrict the board to one office, or ALL for every resolved race. | ALL |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| url | Yes | ||
| metric | Yes | ||
| office | Yes | ||
| entries | Yes | ||
| summary | Yes | ||
| lower_is_better | Yes | ||
| adjusted_for_difficulty | Yes | True. Raw scores reward whoever rated the safest races, so unadjusted rankings mislead. |