Forecast a 2026 race
forecast_raceCurrent VotePredictor forecast for one 2026 US election: win probability, predicted margin, whether it comes from polls or fundamentals, how far it has moved this cycle, and the candidates. Accepts a state name or code ('Ohio', 'OH') or a district ('CA-12'). Returns an explicit refusal for races where a candidate has left the ballot and no forecast is published.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| where | Yes | Where the race is: a state name ('Ohio'), a two-letter state code ('OH'), or a House district ('CA-12'). Pass what the user said. | |
| office | Yes | Which office: SEN for U.S. Senate, GOV for governor, HOUSE for a U.S. House district. |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| url | Yes | Cite this | |
| office | Yes | ||
| rating | Yes | Safe D / Likely D / Lean D / Toss-up / Lean R / Likely R / Safe R | |
| source | Yes | 'polls' where a poll-driven forecast exists, otherwise 'fundamentals' (lean, incumbency, national environment) | |
| n_polls | Yes | ||
| race_id | Yes | Canonical id, {year}_{OFFICE}_{location} | |
| summary | Yes | One-paragraph answer suitable for reading aloud | |
| location | Yes | State code, or district id for the House | |
| p_dem_win | Yes | Democratic win probability, 0.01-0.99. Never 0 or 1: an election that has not happened is not certain. | |
| state_name | Yes | ||
| pred_margin | Yes | Predicted Dem-minus-Rep margin in points | |
| dem_candidate | Yes | ||
| rep_candidate | Yes | ||
| movement_points | Yes | Change in win probability in POINTS since the first snapshot this cycle, positive toward Democrats | |
| forecast_published | Yes | False when this site declines to publish a probability for the race | |
| no_forecast_reason | Yes | Why nothing is published, e.g. a candidate has left the ballot. Do not substitute your own estimate. |