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Glama

VotePredictor Elections

Forecast a 2026 race

forecast_race
Read-onlyIdempotent

Current VotePredictor forecast for one 2026 US election: win probability, predicted margin, whether it comes from polls or fundamentals, how far it has moved this cycle, and the candidates. Accepts a state name or code ('Ohio', 'OH') or a district ('CA-12'). Returns an explicit refusal for races where a candidate has left the ballot and no forecast is published.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
whereYesWhere the race is: a state name ('Ohio'), a two-letter state code ('OH'), or a House district ('CA-12'). Pass what the user said.
officeYesWhich office: SEN for U.S. Senate, GOV for governor, HOUSE for a U.S. House district.

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
urlYesCite this
officeYes
ratingYesSafe D / Likely D / Lean D / Toss-up / Lean R / Likely R / Safe R
sourceYes'polls' where a poll-driven forecast exists, otherwise 'fundamentals' (lean, incumbency, national environment)
n_pollsYes
race_idYesCanonical id, {year}_{OFFICE}_{location}
summaryYesOne-paragraph answer suitable for reading aloud
locationYesState code, or district id for the House
p_dem_winYesDemocratic win probability, 0.01-0.99. Never 0 or 1: an election that has not happened is not certain.
state_nameYes
pred_marginYesPredicted Dem-minus-Rep margin in points
dem_candidateYes
rep_candidateYes
movement_pointsYesChange in win probability in POINTS since the first snapshot this cycle, positive toward Democrats
forecast_publishedYesFalse when this site declines to publish a probability for the race
no_forecast_reasonYesWhy nothing is published, e.g. a candidate has left the ballot. Do not substitute your own estimate.

TDQS

A4.5/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, and destructiveHint=false, so the safety profile is covered. The description goes beyond annotations by disclosing the refusal behavior for races with no published forecast and specifying what forecast components the result includes, which adds meaningful behavioral context.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Two sentences carry all the essential information with no redundancy. The return contents are front-loaded, the input formats and refusal edge case are in the second sentence, and every clause earns its place.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With a fully documented schema, an output schema, and annotations covering read-only and idempotent behavior, the description fills the remaining gaps: scope, accepted input formats, and the refusal case. Nothing needed to select and invoke this tool correctly is missing.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3, but the description adds genuinely useful guidance: 'Pass what the user said' instructs the agent not to normalize input, and it clarifies valid forms ('Ohio', 'OH', 'CA-12'). The office parameter is already fully documented by the schema enum and descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description states a specific verb ('forecast') and resource ('one 2026 US election'), and enumerates what the call returns: win probability, predicted margin, poll/fundamental source, movement, and candidates. This clearly differentiates it from the sibling tools, which concern chamber-level outlook, accuracy, and member profiles.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description makes the intended use clear: a single race forecast for a state, state code, or district, with an office enum. It gives concrete input formats and notes an explicit refusal case, but it does not explicitly state when to prefer this tool over siblings such as chamber_outlook, so it stops short of a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation5/5

Each tool targets a clearly distinct resource: chamber-level control, an individual race, forecaster performance, and a member of Congress. The descriptions sharply differentiate aggregation level (chamber vs. single race) and subject (forecasters vs. legislators), so no two tools plausibly answer the same query.

Naming Consistency4/5

All four names are two-word snake_case compounds (chamber_outlook, forecaster_accuracy, forecast_race, member_profile), which is a consistent style. However, forecast_race inverts the entity_facet pattern used by the other three (race_forecast would match), creating a minor deviation.

Tool Count4/5

Four tools is slightly lean for an elections domain that could reasonably include race browsing or polling detail, but the scope is tightly focused and every tool earns its place. The count sits just under a fully-featured server while remaining well within a reasonable range.

Completeness4/5

Core workflows are covered: aggregate chamber outlook, per-race forecasts, forecaster credibility, and legislator context, with chamber_outlook even enabling race discovery via the 'moved most' list. Minor gaps exist—no race list/browse endpoint, no historical results, no poll-level detail—but agents can work around them without hitting dead ends.

Resources