market.cascade
Butterfly Effect Cascade Intelligence — models how a shock in one macro domain propagates through the interconnected web of climate, geopolitical, economic, and commodity systems. Given an origin event (e.g. armed conflict escalation, agricultural drought, central bank rate decision, rare earth export restriction) and a magnitude score, returns a time-ordered cascade chain showing which downstream systems are hit, in what sequence, with what attenuated signal strength, and an AI synthesis briefing on the highest-impact transmission paths. Covers 24 nodes across 4 domains: climate (drought, flood, carbon price, wildfire, sea-level stress, heatwave), geopolitical (sanctions, conflict, trade tariffs, regime change, election shock, port blockade), economic (rate decisions, inflation, sovereign debt, banking stress, currency crisis, recession), and commodity (oil, gas, grain, rare earth/lithium, copper, water, fertilizer). Purely macro intelligence — no settlement or stablecoin mechanics.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| origin | No | Origin node ID. Call market.cascade with listNodes:true to discover valid IDs (e.g. "geo.conflict", "climate.drought", "commodity.oil", "macro.rate_decision"). | |
| eventType | No | Free-text description of the specific event (e.g. "Russia-Ukraine escalation", "Sahel drought season", "Fed emergency 75bps hike"). | |
| listNodes | No | If true, returns all valid origin node IDs and descriptions instead of running a cascade. Use this first to discover valid origin values. | |
| magnitude | No | Shock magnitude 1–100. 100 = maximum plausible shock for this event type. 40–60 = significant but not extreme. | |
| horizonHours | No | Forward time horizon in hours (1–720). Default: 168 (1 week). Use 24 for immediate cascade, 720 for full 30-day view. |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| origin | No | Origin node metadata. | |
| cascade | No | Time-ordered propagation chain — each entry has node, magnitude, arrivalHours, via path, and mechanism. | |
| eventType | No | Event description provided. | |
| synthesis | No | AI intelligence briefing on transmission paths, concentrated risk, feedback loops, and forward signals. | |
| computedAt | No | ISO timestamp of computation. | |
| horizonHours | No | Time horizon modeled. | |
| inputMagnitude | No | Clamped input magnitude. |